Match Info

Copa Alagoas - Round 1

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Juca Sampaio (Palmeira dos Índios)


	Clube Sociedade Esportiva		Penedense

	1	X	2
	2.19	2.73	3.54
	2.03	2.95	3.82	Watch
	2.2	2.7	3.5
	2.09	3.34	3.44
	2.14	2.8	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.93)	2.9 ↓ (3.21)	3.58 ↓ (3.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Clube Sociedade Esportiva
42.9%

Draw
31.5%

Penedense
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

28.3%

24.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27.3%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Clube Sociedade Esportiva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Penedense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Clube Sociedade Esportiva than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Clube Sociedade Esportiva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. CSE (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - CSE (1.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - CSE (1.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. CSE (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Thiago Magno ⚽,
45+3', Baranhas 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, CSE won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

CSE will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, CSE won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, CSE won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Clube Sociedade Esportiva
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
25.01.26	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Cruzeiro Arapiraca	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Coruripe - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	CRB Maceio - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWLTL
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
25.01.26	Coruripe - Penedense	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Penedense - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	CS Alagoano - Penedense	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Penedense - Cruzeiro Arapiraca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
21.01.26	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	0:2
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
30.03.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense	1:0 penalties
26.03.25	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	1:1
05.02.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
16.01.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense	1:2
28.01.24	Penedense - Clube Sociedade Esportiva	1:1

Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide