Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Colonia Moscardó		Navalcarnero

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.4	2.5
	2.35	3.25	2.62
	2.36	3.06	2.93
	2.35	3.23	2.83	Watch
	2.3	3	2.8
	2.36	3.04	2.88
	2.5	3.15	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.5)	3.16 ↑ (3.15)	2.73 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colonia Moscardó
38.2%

Draw
28.6%

Navalcarnero
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.6%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

27.7%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colonia Moscardó has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colonia Moscardó than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Colonia Moscardó - Navalcarnero Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In recent matches, Moscardó has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Navalcarnero is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Moscardó may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Moscardó won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Moscardó won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Navalcarnero	5	2	1	2	8:8	0	7

Last Results with these Odds

Navalcarnero - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.34%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colonia Moscardó
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.04.26	Real Madrid C - Colonia Moscardó	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Colonia Moscardó - Orihuela	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Getafe B - Colonia Moscardó	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	San Sebastian Reyes - Colonia Moscardó	2:1 ✺
22.03.26	Colonia Moscardó - Las Palmas B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWWLL
- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
19.04.26	Navalcarnero - Conquense	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Coria - Navalcarnero	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Navalcarnero - Rayo Majadahonda	2:3 ✺
29.03.26	Quintanar del Rey - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Alcalá - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
14.12.25	Navalcarnero - Colonia Moscardó	2:1
23.03.25	Colonia Moscardó - Navalcarnero	0:3
10.11.24	Navalcarnero - Colonia Moscardó	3:3

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