Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 22 June 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao) (Aracaju)


	Confiança		Guarani

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.87	3.25	2.1
	3.10	3.05	2.35	Watch
	3.16	3.50	2.12
	3.33	3.1	2.24	Watch
	3.22	3.35	2.03	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (3.66)	3.19 ↑ (3.05)	2.2 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
29.7%

Draw
28.7%

Guarani
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

30%

45%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.4%

29.3%

46.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Confiança that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
43.7%	12.5%	43.7%

Confiança - Guarani Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Confiança will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). Guarani will win (votes: 7 - 43.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Confiança: 19.5% – 68.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Confiança (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rafael Pascoal (G) 8. Gabriel Zeca 11. Iago Silva 4. Icaro (C) 7. Joao Pedro 6. Kelvyn 3. Lucas Cunha 9. Maikon Aquino 2. Mateus Ludke 10. PK 13. Renilson	1. Caique Franca (C) 15. Carlos Eduardo 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 21. Isaque 10. Joao Paulo 99. Maranhao 8. Nathan Melo 5. Rafael Donato 4. Raphael 26. Renan Castro 22. Rian
Substitutes
21. Breiner C. 19. Danielzinho 14. Eduardo Moura 18. Fabricio 15. Joao Mandovani 20. Marcelo Nunes 16. Matheus Juliao 12. Matheus Silva (G) 5. Paulo Henrique 99. Sassa 22. Valdir Junior 17. Weriton	88. Diego Torres 33. Edson Rogerio 77. Guilherme Parede 27. Herbert 66. Kaua Jesus 9. Lucca 37. Marotto E. 70. Mateus Claus (G) 49. Wictor 30. Ynaia
Coaches
Thiago Gomes	Sizenando E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Maranhao 🟨,
30', Iago Silva 🟨,
33', Nathan Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Maikon Aquino ⚽,
53', 2 - 0, Maikon Aquino ⚽,
56', Rafael Donato 🟨,
57', Nathan Melo 🟨,
61', Maranhao ↓, Herbert ↑,
61', Isaque ↓, Kaua Jesus ↑,
66', Iago Silva ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
68', Maikon Aquino ↓, Weriton ↑,
68', Gabriel Zeca ↓, Paulo Henrique ↑,
73', 🟨,
75', Carlos Eduardo ↓, Ynaia ↑,
75', Rian ↓, Edson Rogerio ↑,
80', PK ↓, Valdir Junior ↑,
82', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Lucca ↑,
89', Danielzinho 🟥,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Confiança is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Guarani is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Guarani could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Confiança won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Confiança won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
14.06.26	Volta Redonda - Confiança	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Floresta - Confiança	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Confiança - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
18.05.26	Confiança - Maranhão	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Confiança - Grêmio	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLTWL
- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
13.06.26	Guarani - Caxias	2:1 ✺
31.05.26	Guarani - Amazonas	5:0 ✺
23.05.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Guarani	0:2 ✺
17.05.26	Guarani - Ituano	1:3 ✺
11.05.26	Maringá - Guarani	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
25.08.25	Guarani - Confiança	1:0
Brazilian Serie B
22.10.21	Guarani - Confiança	1:2
16.07.21	Confiança - Guarani	1:4

Confiança - Guarani: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide