Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 7

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Brinco de Ouro (Campinas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet+, Zapping


	Guarani		Ituano

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.72	3.25	4.33
	1.7	3.3	4.45	Watch
	1.75	3.31	4.92
	1.77	3.32	4.92	Watch
	1.73	3	4.6
	1.69	3.28	4.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.66)	3.24 ↓ (3.4)	4.69 ↓ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guarani
52.6%

Draw
28%

Ituano
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

27.3%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

26%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guarani has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Ituano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarani than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Guarani, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ituano than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Guarani - Ituano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Caique Franca (C) 15. Carlos Eduardo 10. Diego Torres 6. Emerson Barbosa 21. Guilherme Cachoeira 11. Herbert 19. Maranhao 13. Mauricio Antonio 8. Nathan Melo 3. Raphael 2. Yan Henrique	1. Wesley Borges (G) 9. Gabriel Razera 5. Gabriel William 10. Guilherme Xavier (C) 3. Leo Coltro 2. Lucas Mota 4. Matheus Mancini 11. Neto Berola 8. Richard 7. Thassio 6. Tiaguinho
Substitutes
7. Guilherme Parede 20. Isaque 22. Kaua Jesus 18. Kewen 9. Lucca 12. Mateus Claus (G) 17. Mirandinha 5. Rafael Donato 23. Rafael Freitas 4. Ralf 16. Renan Castro 14. Ynaia	17. Alason Carioca 21. Bruno Alves 19. Bruno Mezenga 14. Carlao 16. Guilherme Dal Pian 15. Leandro Sergipe 23. Leo Passos 22. Lucas Stefanello 18. Martha 20. Nelsinho 12. Saulo (G) 13. Victor Reis
Coaches
Sizenando E.	de Freitas U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Gabriel William ⚽,
28', Gabriel Razera 🟨,
30', Neto Berola 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, Neto Berola ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, Nathan Melo ⚽,
45+1', Yan Henrique 🟨,
45+4', Gabriel William 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Yan Henrique ↓, Ynaia ↑,
54', 🟨,
65', Neto Berola ↓, Alason Carioca ↑,
69', Diego Torres ↓, Lucca ↑,
73', Gabriel Razera ↓, Bruno Mezenga ↑,
73', Guilherme Xavier ↓, Martha ↑,
74', 1 - 3, Alason Carioca ⚽,
75', Alason Carioca 🟨,
76', Carlos Eduardo 🟨,
76', Guilherme Cachoeira ↓, Guilherme Parede ↑,
77', Herbert ↓, Mirandinha ↑,
77', Maranhao ↓, Kewen ↑,
81', Tiaguinho ↓, Guilherme Dal Pian ↑,
81', Thassio ↓, Victor Reis ↑,
87', Victor Reis 🟨,
90+3', Ynaia 🟨,
90+5', Mauricio Antonio 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 1.

Guarani is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ituano's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Guarani may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guarani is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Guarani will win today's game, with odds of 1.73.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Guarani won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Guarani won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guarani Futebol Clube
Brazilian Serie C
11.05.26	Maringá - Guarani	0:5 ✺
02.05.26	Guarani - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
27.04.26	Ferroviária - Guarani	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Guarani - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Guarani - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTTW
- Ituano
Brazilian Serie C
10.05.26	Ituano - Confiança	1:0 ✺
05.05.26	Ypiranga - Ituano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
30.04.26	Ferroviária - Ituano	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.26	Ituano - Maringá	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
23.04.26	Ituano - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
13.07.25	Guarani - Ituano	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
05.10.24	Ituano - Guarani	1:0
18.06.24	Guarani - Ituano	3:3
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
27.01.24	Ituano - Guarani	0:3
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.23	Ituano - Guarani	1:1
28.04.23	Guarani - Ituano	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
21.01.23	Guarani - Ituano	0:0

Guarani - Ituano: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide