Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 22 July 2024, Monday

Location: Estádio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Aracaju)

Referee: da Fonseca Silva R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Confiança		Ferroviário Fortaleza

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.73	3.2	4.33
	1.75	3.3	4.5	Watch
	1.8	3.15	5.48
	1.75	3.09	5.19	Watch
	1.67	3.25	4.5
	1.74	3.32	4.53	Watch
	1.75	3.2	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2)	3.22 ↓ (3.25)	4.73 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Confiança
52.4%

Draw
28.4%

Ferroviário Fortaleza
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

28.2%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

27.4%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Confiança has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Confiança's performance.

Ferroviário Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferroviário Fortaleza might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Confiança that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferroviário Fortaleza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: Confiança will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jeferson Souza (G) 8. Andre 7. Douglas 4. Eduardo Junho 5. Fabio Silva 6. Felippe Borges 9. Hyuri 2. Junior 3. Raphael 10. Vico 11. Willians Santana (C)	1. Douglas Dias (G) 15. Bruno Reis 99. Ciel (C) 21. de Souza Ienczczak N. 14. Igor Dutra 26. Leo Gobo 7. Marcelinho 8. Marciel 4. Naldo 16. Renan Luis 20. Robson
Substitutes
14. Adryan 13. Afonso 15. Eduardo 21. Italo 20. Julio Rusch 16. Lucas Mendes 18. Luiz Otavio 22. Pedro Rodrigues 17. Riquelmo 23. Robson 12. Thiago Braga (G) 19. Thiago Santos	6. Ernandes 11. Gabryel Martins 32. Geaze (G) 19. Israel 9. Kiuan 5. Lincoln 10. Romarinho 22. Vinicius Alves 17. Wilker 27. Willian Rocha
Coaches
de Freitas U.	Kobayashi P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', Igor Dutra 🟨,
16', de Souza Ienczczak N. 🟨,
25', Raphael 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Ciel ⚽,
43', Junior 🟨,
44', Naldo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Douglas ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
46', Fabio Silva ↓, Thiago Santos ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Raphael ⚽,
63', de Souza Ienczczak N. ↓, Gabryel Martins ↑,
73', Junior ↓, Lucas Mendes ↑,
74', Robson ↓, Ernandes ↑,
79', Vico ↓, Julio Rusch ↑,
79', Willians Santana ↓, Italo ↑,
82', Marciel ↓, Wilker ↑,
83', Marcelinho ↓, Kiuan ↑,
83', Igor Dutra ↓, Lincoln ↑,
90+4', Lucas Mendes 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Confiança could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Confiança is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Confiança won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Confiança won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
13.07.24	Botafogo PB - Confiança	3:3 ✺
07.07.24	Confiança - Ypiranga	2:0 ✺
01.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:1 ✺
27.06.24	Confiança - CS Alagoano	0:1 ✺
16.06.24	Figueirense - Confiança	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLLL
- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie C
17.07.24	Ypiranga - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
06.07.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Volta Redonda	0:2 ✺
29.06.24	Remo - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:1 ✺
26.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
19.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.01.23	Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:1 penalties
Brazilian Serie C
17.05.22	Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0
24.08.19	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Confiança	2:2
23.06.19	Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:0
Copa do Brasil
07.02.18	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Confiança	2:1

Confiança - Ferroviário Fortaleza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide