Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 5

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Confiança

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.7	3.25	4.4
	1.72	3.3	4.6	Watch
	1.77	3.38	5.08
	1.75	3.4	5	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.5
	1.71	3.38	4.58	Watch
	1.72	3.3	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 (1.73)	3.3 ↓ (3.55)	4.68 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
52.8%

Draw
27.7%

Confiança
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25.8%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

25%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Confiança has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Confiança than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 18. Auremir (C) 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 40. Joao Maistro 12. Kelvin 6. Luiz Paulo 8. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan	1. Allan (G) 6. Airton 11. Breiner C. 8. Dionisio 4. Eduardo Moura 5. Fabio Silva (C) 7. Geovane 3. Lucas Souza 10. Luiz Otavio 9. Neto Oliveira 2. Valdir Junior
Substitutes
10. Caio Vitor 16. Felipe Santana 11. Helio Borges 23. Igor Fernandes 27. Kauan Maranhao 15. Kayon 38. Leo (G) 30. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 3. Rayan 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson	16. Alan Cardoso 17. Fabricio Pereira 21. Felipe Clemente 12. Felipe Scheibig (G) 13. Maicon 15. Matheus Blade 19. Rodriguinho 18. Ronald Camarao 20. Thiago Santos 22. Vitinho 14. Weriton

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', Joao Maistro ↓, Rayan ↑,
19', 1 - 0, Marco Antonio ⚽,
22', Fabio Silva 🟨,
34', 2 - 0, de Sousa Oliveira T. ⚽,
45+1', Rayan 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luiz Otavio ↓, Matheus Blade ↑,
46', Geovane ↓, Ronald Camarao ↑,
46', Neto Oliveira ↓, Felipe Clemente ↑,
52', de Sousa Oliveira T. ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
62', Arnaldo ↓, Marcos Ytalo ↑,
62', Kelvin ↓, Kayon ↑,
62', Patrick Allan ↓, Caio Vitor ↑,
68', Breiner C. ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
76', Lucas Souza 🟥,
84', Caio Vitor 🟨,
86', Airton ↓, Alan Cardoso ↑,
89', Matheus Blade 🟨,
90', Bruno Mezenga 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Náutico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Náutico is a strong favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:19. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.4:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
04.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Brusque	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	São Paulo - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
26.04.25	CS Alagoano - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo PB	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Itabaiana - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLTL
- AD Confiança Aracaju
Brazilian Serie C
03.05.25	Maringá - Confiança	3:2 ✺
26.04.25	Confiança - Ponte Preta	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Confiança - Caxias	2:1 ✺
12.04.25	Botafogo PB - Confiança	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Sergipano
29.03.25	Confiança - Itabaiana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Brazilian Serie C
01.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	2:1
12.06.23	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2
Brazilian Serie B
09.11.21	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
07.08.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	0:4
04.01.21	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
03.10.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Confiança	0:1

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