Match Info

SPAIN: TERCERA RFEF - GROUP 10 - ROUND 20

Date: 4 February 2024, Sunday


	Conil		Gerena

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.87	3.1
	2.14	2.91	3.41
	2.14	2.95	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.4)	2.91 ↓ (3.2)	3.32 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Conil
41.8%

Draw
31%

Gerena
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

28.2%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

26.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Conil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Gerena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Gerena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Conil than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gerena than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gerena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Conil won 1.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Gerena could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Conil won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 8-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Conil won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Conil CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
28.01.24	Ciudad de Lucena - Conil	2:0 ✺
20.01.24	Conil - Ayamonte	0:0 ✺
14.01.24	Conil - Coria CF	1:1 ✺
23.12.23	La Palma - Conil	2:0 ✺
17.12.23	Conil - Xerez Deportivo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTTLL
- CD Gerena
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
28.01.24	Gerena - Cartaya	0:3 ✺
21.01.24	Cabecense - Gerena	1:2 ✺
13.01.24	Ceuta B - Gerena	4:0 ✺
23.12.23	Gerena - Xerez CD	1:3 ✺
16.12.23	Córdoba B - Gerena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
24.09.23	Gerena - Conil	2:0
08.01.23	Conil - Gerena	0:1
11.09.22	Gerena - Conil	3:0
17.04.22	Gerena - Conil	6:0
12.12.21	Conil - Gerena	2:1
29.05.21	Conil - Gerena	3:1
05.05.21	Gerena - Conil	3:0

Conil - Gerena: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide