Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday


	Constancia		Penya Independent

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.95	3.6
	2.03	2.8	3.95
	2.15	2.69	4.02
	2.02	2.84	4.18	Watch
	1.89	3.4	3.87
	2.03	2.8	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.39)	2.91 ↓ (4.23)	3.93 ↓ (7.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Constancia
45.3%

Draw
31.4%

Penya Independent
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.9%

21.6%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

20.2%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Constancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Constancia's form might have worsened.

Penya Independent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Penya Independent's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Constancia than the current prediction. (+25.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Constancia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Penya Independent, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Constancia - Penya Independent Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

1st leg result: 1-1. 2nd leg.

Constancia has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Penya Independent's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Constancia is considered a favorite.

We predict that Constancia will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Constancia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Constancia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Constancia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
17.05.25	Penya Independent - Constancia	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	PE Sant Jordi - Constancia	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Constancia - Alcúdia	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Santanyí - Constancia	2:3 ✺
16.04.25	Constancia - Campos	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWWWW
- SE Penya Independent
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
17.05.25	Penya Independent - Constancia	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Santanyí - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
07.05.25	Penya Independent - Campos	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Penya Independent - Formentera	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Poblense - Penya Independent	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
17.05.25	Penya Independent - Constancia	1:1
08.03.25	Constancia - Penya Independent	1:0
26.10.24	Penya Independent - Constancia	3:1
15.01.23	Penya Independent - Constancia	0:1
10.09.22	Constancia - Penya Independent	0:2

Constancia - Penya Independent: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide