Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 30

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday


	Poblense		Penya Independent

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.25	4.3
	1.78	3.16	4.54
	1.79	3.25	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.68)	3.22 ↓ (3.43)	4.38 ↓ (4.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poblense
50.9%

Draw
28.3%

Penya Independent
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

26.4%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

24.7%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poblense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Penya Independent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poblense than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Poblense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Poblense - Penya Independent Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
24', 1 - 0, Alarcon M. ⚽,
25', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 2 - 1, Pons A. ⚽,

Preview

Poblense in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Penya Independent is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Poblense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Poblense have a series of guest games.

In this match Poblense is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Poblense to win the game is with odds 1.74.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Poblense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Poblense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Poblense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
05.04.25	Platges de Calvià - Poblense	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Constancia - Poblense	0:3 ✺
23.03.25	Porreres - Poblense	0:0 ✺
15.03.25	Poblense - Binissalem	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Portmany - Poblense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WWTWW
- SE Penya Independent
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
05.04.25	Penya Independent - Collerense	4:3 ✺
22.03.25	Llosetense - Penya Independent	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Penya Independent - Platges de Calvià	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Constancia - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
22.02.25	Binissalem - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
30.11.24	Penya Independent - Poblense	1:0
07.05.23	Penya Independent - Poblense	1:1
30.04.23	Poblense - Penya Independent	2:3
04.03.23	Poblense - Penya Independent	2:1
30.10.22	Penya Independent - Poblense	2:2

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