Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2025, Saturday


	Penya Independent		Constancia

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.7	3.1
	2.38	2.8	3.1
	2.58	2.42	3.5
	2.37	2.85	3.17	Watch
	2.41	2.77	3.26
	2.38	2.8	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.26)	2.72 ↓ (3.1)	3.21 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penya Independent
37.9%

Draw
33.6%

Constancia
28.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

29.4%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

31.2%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penya Independent has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Constancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Constancia aligns with the current prediction.

Penya Independent - Constancia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', 1 - 0, ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Ferrer M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', 🟥,

Preview

1st leg.

Penya Independent has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Constancia is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Penya Independent might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Penya Independent won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Penya Independent won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SE Penya Independent
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
11.05.25	Santanyí - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
07.05.25	Penya Independent - Campos	3:0 ✺
19.04.25	Penya Independent - Formentera	1:3 ✺
12.04.25	Poblense - Penya Independent	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Penya Independent - Collerense	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWLLW
- Constancia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
11.05.25	PE Sant Jordi - Constancia	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Constancia - Alcúdia	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Santanyí - Constancia	2:3 ✺
16.04.25	Constancia - Campos	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Constancia - Formentera	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
08.03.25	Constancia - Penya Independent	1:0
26.10.24	Penya Independent - Constancia	3:1
15.01.23	Penya Independent - Constancia	0:1
10.09.22	Constancia - Penya Independent	0:2

Penya Independent - Constancia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide