Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 31

Date: 19 April 2025, Saturday


	Penya Independent		Formentera

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.95	2.65
	2.5	3	2.7
	2.48	3.05	2.83
	2.48	3.1	2.76	Watch
	2.43	2.98	2.76
	2.5	3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (3.07)	3.01 ↑ (3)	2.73 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penya Independent
36.7%

Draw
30.1%

Formentera
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

30.3%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

29.9%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penya Independent has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Penya Independent's performance.

Formentera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Formentera might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Penya Independent than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Penya Independent that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Formentera than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Formentera could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Penya Independent - Formentera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Gorriz A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', 0 - 2, Losada F. ⚽,
62', 🟥,
78', 0 - 3, Kata N. ⚽,
90', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Penya Independent is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Formentera is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Penya Independent won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 1:7 (average 0.3:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Penya Independent won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SE Penya Independent
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
12.04.25	Poblense - Penya Independent	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Penya Independent - Collerense	4:3 ✺
22.03.25	Llosetense - Penya Independent	2:0 ✺
15.03.25	Penya Independent - Platges de Calvià	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Constancia - Penya Independent	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLWL
- SD Formentera
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
12.04.25	Formentera - Platges de Calvià	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Constancia - Formentera	3:2 ✺
30.03.25	Formentera - Porreres	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Binissalem - Formentera	1:1 ✺
16.03.25	Formentera - Portmany	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
06.12.24	Formentera - Penya Independent	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 3
28.04.24	Formentera - Penya Independent	3:0
16.12.23	Penya Independent - Formentera	1:3

Penya Independent - Formentera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide