Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Play Out - Final

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday


	Corticella		Sammaurese

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.95	2.6
	2.67	2.8	2.67
	2.71	2.97	2.62	Watch
	2.65	2.83	2.64
	2.55	2.85	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.5)	2.88 ↓ (3)	2.64 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corticella
34.5%

Draw
31.3%

Sammaurese
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

29.8%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

29.2%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corticella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Sammaurese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corticella than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sammaurese than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Corticella - Sammaurese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Merlonghi M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 🟥,
90+4', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Corticella won 3.

Corticella has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sammaurese has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Corticella won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Corticella won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Corticella - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.78%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Corticella
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.05.25	Corticella - Sasso Marconi	4:1 ✺
27.04.25	Pistoiese - Corticella	5:0 ✺
17.04.25	Corticella - Prato	0:3 ✺
13.04.25	Tuttocuoio - Corticella	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Corticella - Lentigione	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLTL
- AC Sammaurese
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.05.25	Lentigione - Sammaurese	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Sammaurese - United Riccione	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Progresso - Sammaurese	0:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sammaurese - San Marino Calcio	0:1 ✺
06.04.25	Fiorenzuola - Sammaurese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
02.03.25	Corticella - Sammaurese	1:0
27.10.24	Sammaurese - Corticella	1:3
10.03.24	Corticella - Sammaurese	2:1
01.11.23	Sammaurese - Corticella	2:1
08.01.23	Sammaurese - Corticella	0:0
18.04.21	Corticella - Sammaurese	2:3

Corticella - Sammaurese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide