Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 15

Date: 10 December 2023, Sunday


	Covadonga		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.95	2.1
	3.3	3.2	2.15	Watch
	3.24	3.13	2.25
	3.24	3.13	2.26
	3.16	3.13	2.15
	3.35	3.05	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.85)	3.1 ↑ (2.97)	2.17 ↓ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covadonga
28.2%

Draw
29.6%

Real Avilés
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

30.8%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.8%

30.1%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covadonga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Real Avilés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Avilés's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covadonga than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Avilés, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Covadonga - Real Avilés Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Covadonga is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Real Avilés is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Covadonga could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Real Avilés will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Covadonga won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Covadonga won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Covadonga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
02.12.23	Real Oviedo B - Covadonga	5:0 ✺
26.11.23	Covadonga - Pontevedra	3:1 ✺
18.11.23	Coruxo - Covadonga	3:1 ✺
12.11.23	Covadonga - Guijuelo	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	Cayón - Covadonga	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 LWLTL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
03.12.23	Real Avilés - Arandina	2:1 ✺
26.11.23	Marino de Luanco - Real Avilés	0:0 ✺
19.11.23	Real Avilés - Rayo Cantabria	1:2 ✺
12.11.23	Zamora - Real Avilés	1:0 ✺
04.11.23	Real Oviedo B - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 2
12.01.20	Covadonga - Real Avilés	3:0
23.08.19	Real Avilés - Covadonga	1:1
09.12.18	Covadonga - Real Avilés	4:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
28.04.18	Real Avilés - Covadonga	2:2

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