Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 17

Date: 22 January 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Referee: Rodrigues A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Covilhã		Moreirense

	1	X	2
	6	3.75	1.5
	5.25	3.7	1.55
	5.6	3.45	1.6
	5.6	3.8	1.56
	6.55	4.02	1.57
	5.5	3.5	1.55
	5.25	3.84	1.57
	5.4	3.7	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.64 ↑ (4.33)	3.72 ↑ (3.25)	1.56 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
16.3%

Draw
24.7%

Moreirense
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.8%

27.7%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

26.7%

53.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Moreirense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moreirense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moreirense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	9.5%	81%

Covilhã - Moreirense Predictions

Users Predictions: Moreirense will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Portugal).

Covilhã has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Moreirense is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Covilhã could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Moreirense have a series of home games.

In this match Moreirense is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
14.01.23	Trofense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
08.01.23	Covilhã - Vilafranquense	0:0 ✺
30.12.22	Oliveirense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
14.12.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2 ✺
27.11.22	Portimonense - Covilhã	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLL
- Moreirense FC
Portuguese Liga 2
13.01.23	Moreirense - Mafra	4:2 ✺
05.01.23	Leixões - Moreirense	0:1 ✺
31.12.22	Moreirense - Estrela da Amadora	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
22.12.22	Moreirense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
17.12.22	Moreirense - Benfica	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Taça de Portugal
25.11.18	Covilhã - Moreirense	0:3
Portuguese Liga 2
28.12.13	Moreirense - Covilhã	0:0
18.08.13	Covilhã - Moreirense	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
07.08.13	Covilhã - Moreirense	1:0

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