The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Moreirense 36.2%
Draw 29.8%
Arouca 34%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.2%
28.9%
28.9%
Our Initial ML Estimation
38.6%
26.4%
31.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Moreirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Moreirense's form might have worsened.
Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arouca's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreirense than the current prediction. (+2.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-2.4%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
18.2%
72.7%
9.1%
Moreirense - Arouca Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Moreirense will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
13. Ferreira A. (G) 71. Santos L. 66. Batista G. 26. Maracas (C) 27. Kiko 23. John N. 8. Stjepanovic M. 11. Alanzinho 2. Travassos 9. Semedo L. 10. Kiko Bondoso
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.
Substitutes
25. Assis A. 22. Caio (G) 30. Gower J. 4. Kevyn Monteiro 78. Landerson 16. Mika (G) 21. Rodri 6. Silva M. A.
44. Dante A. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 6. Monteiro D. 89. Pedro Santos 11. Puche 4. Rocha M. 20. Santiago Perez J. 1. Valido J. (G)
Coaches
Costa V.
Seabra V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Nandin D. 🟨,
39', Maracas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Nandin D. ↓, Puche ↑,
58', Kiko ↓, Landerson ↑,
58', Alanzinho ↓, Gower J. ↑,
67', 0 - 1, Puche ⚽,
70', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
73', Gozalbez P. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
75', Santos L. ↓, Kevyn Monteiro ↑,
82', John N. ↓, Rodri ↑,
86', Fukui T. ↓, Santiago Perez J. ↑,
86', Kuipers B. ↓, Dante A. ↑,
86', Lee H. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 4.
Moreirense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Arouca is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Moreirense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Moreirense: Pinto D.
(Inactive)
Sousa V.
(Leg Injury)
There will not play in Arouca: Barbero I.
(Yellow Cards)
Flores M.
(Inactive)
Trezza A.
(Red Card)
There are questionable in Moreirense: Landerson
(Injury)
Martinez A.
(Inactive)
Michel
(Inactive)
Teguia C.
(Inactive)
Yan Maranhao
(Injury)
There are questionable in Arouca: Pedro Santos
(Inactive)
In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Moreirense won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Moreirense won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.4:1.3).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
6
Arouca
7
3
2
2
10:7
3
11
12
Moreirense
8
2
2
4
8:15
-7
8
Last Results with these Odds
Moreirense - the odds 2.23 are the expected chance of winning is 42.15%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.
Portugal
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Ferreira A. (G) 
Batista G. 
Maracas (C) 
John N. 
Stjepanovic M. 
De Arruabarrena I. (G) 
Sanchez J. 
Kuipers B. 
Fukui T. 
Lee H. 
Djouahra N. 
Dante A. 
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