Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - PROMOTION GROUP - ROUND 6

Date: 17 March 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio José Santos Pinto (Covilhã)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Covilhã		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.93	3	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.1	3.75
	2.04	3.28	3.99
	2.04	3.28	3.99
	1.92	3.15	3.87
	1.96	3.1	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.33)	3.15 ↑ (2.93)	3.82 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Covilhã
46.7%

Draw
29.2%

Varzim
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.8%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

28.5%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Covilhã's performance.

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Covilhã that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varzim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Covilhã - Varzim Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Covilhã will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Makaridze G. (G) 24. Tomas N. 4. Adams M. 44. Monteiro I. 20. Gildo 80. Renato Luis 87. Ferreira R. 13. Michel 19. Joao Vasco 99. Benedict E. 7. Traquina (C)	13. Ricardo (G) 43. Dias J. 15. Martins D. 3. Bonilla J. 30. Moreira P. 8. Braga V. 23. Sinisterra J. 29. Vasco Rocha (C) 19. Santos Teixeira L. 9. Sangare M. 14. Joaozinho
Substitutes
90. Campos P. 3. Casagrande P. 9. Chico Cardoso 15. Ferreira D. 82. Figueiredo B. 8. Gilberto 71. Joao Goncalo (G) 21. Valente A. 10. Ze Tiago	49. Areias R. 22. Guga 5. Milhazes A. 10. Pereira N. 1. Pereira T. (G) 2. Pimenta G. 45. Rafael Tavares 89. Souza N. 6. Ufala S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Joao Vasco (Pen),
22', Michel 🟨,
36', Tomas N. 🟨,
41', Joaozinho ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Michel ↓, Figueiredo B. ↑,
48', Tomas N. ⚽,
56', Santos Teixeira L. 🟨,
71', Sinisterra J. ↓, Ufala S. ↑,
71', Martins D. ↓, Rafael Tavares ↑,
74', Moreira P. ⚽,
75', Ferreira R. ↓, Valente A. ↑,
77', Vasco Rocha ↓, Pereira N. ↑,
82', Tomas N. ↓, Chico Cardoso ↑,
82', Benedict E. ↓, Ferreira D. ↑,
86', Ferreira D. ⚽,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 7 and 8).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 4.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Covilhã will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Covilhã won 11 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Covilhã won 7 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.24	Alverca - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:2 ✺
24.02.24	Braga B - Covilhã	0:0 ✺
18.02.24	Covilhã - Lusitânia	0:1 ✺
10.02.24	Académica Coimbra - Covilhã	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTTLT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
09.03.24	Felgueiras - Varzim	1:0 ✺
02.03.24	Varzim - Alverca	0:1 ✺
25.02.24	Atlético CP - Varzim	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Varzim - Braga B	2:0 ✺
11.02.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
30.04.22	Varzim - Covilhã	0:2
20.12.21	Covilhã - Varzim	1:0
22.02.21	Varzim - Covilhã	1:2
26.09.20	Covilhã - Varzim	2:1
08.12.19	Varzim - Covilhã	1:0
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.19	Covilhã - Varzim	1:0 penalties
Portuguese Liga 2
02.02.19	Covilhã - Varzim	1:0

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