Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - PROMOTION GROUP - ROUND 5

Date: 9 March 2024, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Felgueiras		Varzim

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.7	6.5	Watch
	1.42	4	7
	1.46	4.25	7.66
	1.46	4.25	7.66
	1.41	3.98	7.37
	1.46	3.7	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.97)	3.98 ↑ (3.25)	7.1 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Felgueiras
63.8%

Draw
23.2%

Varzim
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

27.9%

26.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

26.6%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Felgueiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Felgueiras's performance.

Varzim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Varzim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Felgueiras than the current prediction. (-15.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Felgueiras that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Varzim could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Felgueiras - Varzim Predictions

Users Predictions: Felgueiras will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sao Bento V. (G) 77. Andrade D. 29. Banguera E. 27. Ca L. 9. Carlos Eduardo 21. Cassio L. 7. Ktatau 8. Landinho 14. Lemos I. M. 23. Ribeiro Sousa Peixoto R. P. 28. Rosas P.	13. Ricardo (G) 3. Bonilla J. 22. Guga 14. Joaozinho 5. Milhazes A. 30. Moreira P. 45. Rafael Tavares 9. Sangare M. 23. Sinisterra J. 29. Vasco Rocha 4. Xandao (C)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play in the exciting match (ranked 5 and 7).

Felgueiras is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Varzim is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Felgueiras is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Felgueiras won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Felgueiras won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Felgueiras
Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.24	Lusitânia - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Felgueiras - Alverca	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	Felgueiras - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
10.02.24	Atlético CP - Felgueiras	1:1 ✺
28.01.24	Varzim - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTTTL
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 3
02.03.24	Varzim - Alverca	0:1 ✺
25.02.24	Atlético CP - Varzim	2:0 ✺
17.02.24	Varzim - Braga B	2:0 ✺
11.02.24	Lusitânia - Varzim	1:0 ✺
28.01.24	Varzim - Felgueiras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
28.01.24	Varzim - Felgueiras	1:0
29.10.23	Felgueiras - Varzim	2:0
20.01.23	Felgueiras - Varzim	2:0
17.09.22	Varzim - Felgueiras	3:0

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