Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Crema		Pontedera

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.20	3.10
	2.02	3.15	3.2
	2.05	3.36	3.25	Watch
	1.99	3.1	3.1
	2.03	3.28	3.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (2.02)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)	3.17 ↓ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crema
44.1%

Draw
27.8%

Pontedera
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44%

28.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

27.3%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crema has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Pontedera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crema than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Crema - Pontedera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (4 - 1)
49', 1 - 0, ⚽,
49', 2 - 0, ⚽,
68', 3 - 0, ⚽,
68', 4 - 0, ⚽,
68', 4 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 15th in the Serie D - Group D (Play Out: ) and 18th in the Relegation).

Crema has struggled for results with multiple recent losses (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Pontedera has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Pontedera may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Crema holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Crema	9	2	3	4	9:16	-7	9
18	Pontedera	9	1	1	7	7:23	-16	4

Last Results with these Odds

Pontedera - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 27.78%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Crema
Italian Serie D - Group D
11.10.26	Tropical Coriano - Crema	0:0 ✺
27.09.26	Castellanzese - Crema	4:0 ✺
20.09.26	Crema - Pro Sesto	0:3 ✺
16.09.26	Pro Patria - Crema	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Crema - Pistoiese	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TLLLL
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie D - Group D
14.10.26	Tropical Coriano - Pontedera	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Lentigione - Pontedera	2:0 ✺
20.09.26	Pontedera - Varese	0:3 ✺
16.09.26	Pro Sesto - Pontedera	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Pontedera - Pro Patria	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLLLL

Crema - Pontedera