Match Info

Serie B - Round 30

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Heriberto Hülse (Criciúma)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Criciúma		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	6.25	Watch
	1.62	3.30	5.75
	1.58	3.5	5.9
	1.65	3.75	6.67
	1.64	3.5	5.8	Watch
	1.59	3.65	6.5
	1.64	3.41	5.97	Watch
	1.59	3.6	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.62)	3.51 ↓ (3.7)	6.08 ↑ (5.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Criciúma
58%

Draw
26.6%

Avaí
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.7%

25.3%

17%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

24%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Criciúma - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Criciúma will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Avaí will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Criciúma: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Airton (G) 6. Marcinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 97. Willean Lepo 41. Jean Irmer 14. Ronald Lopes 10. Jhonata Robert 7. Fellipe Mateus 91. Otero R. 9. Nicolas	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 38. Jefferson Maciel 3. Allyson 40. Reynaldo (C) 4. Gabriel Simples 77. Ze Ricardo 25. Paulo Vitor 36. Douglas Teixeira 14. Daniel Penha 11. Vizeu F. 37. Rildo
Substitutes
1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 37. Cesar Martins 5. Eduardo 8. Gui Lobo 31. Hiago Alves 21. Joao Carlos 70. Pedro Santos (G) 11. Romarinho 13. Waguininho 33. Yuri Tanque	19. Caio Suassuna 59. Filipinho 23. Gabriel Cipriano 70. Gaspar 15. Guilherme Aquino 1. Igor Bohn (G) 26. Immig V. 9. Leo Gamalho 8. Luiz Henrique 35. Pedrao 5. Romildo Del Piage 95. Wenderson
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Rildo ↓, Gabriel Cipriano ↑,
27', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
34', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Reynaldo (Own goal),
55', Ze Ricardo 🟨,
58', Allyson ↓, Romildo Del Piage ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Luciano Castan ⚽, Otero R. (A),
61', Gabriel Simples 🟨,
70', Jhonata Robert ↓, Waguininho ↑,
70', Jean Irmer ↓, Gui Lobo ↑,
70', Paulo Vitor ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
70', Gabriel Simples ↓, Wenderson ↑,
71', Vizeu F. ↓, Gaspar ↑,
77', Otero R. ↓, Romarinho ↑,
77', Ronald Lopes ↓, Eduardo ↑,
82', 3 - 0, Willean Lepo ⚽, Romarinho (A),
84', Jefferson Maciel 🟨,
85', Romarinho 🟨,
86', Nicolas ↓, Yuri Tanque ↑,
90+3', Romildo Del Piage 🟨,

Preview

One of the top-ranked clubs faces a lower-table side fighting for vital survival points (ranked 7th and 17th in the Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Criciúma won 3.

Criciúma is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Avaí has suffered a run of successive defeats (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Bookmakers give the edge to Criciúma for this game.

Confirmed absences for Criciúma: Marcelo Hermes (Yellow Cards) Willean Lepo (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Avaí: Jean Lucas (Yellow Cards) Juan Rocha (Injury) Quaresma (Inactive) Vizeu F. (Inactive) Wallison (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Avaí: Joao Vitor (Inactive).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Criciúma has recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:22 (averaging 1.2:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Criciúma against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:9 goals (averaging 1:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Criciúma - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.72%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Avaí - the odds 5.5 are the expected chance of winning is 17%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
22.09.26	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Criciúma	4:0 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
04.09.26	Criciúma - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	CRB Maceio - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLWL
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
20.09.26	Goiás - Avaí	2:1 ✺
14.09.26	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Avaí - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
30.05.26	Avaí - Criciúma	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
11.01.26	Criciúma - Avaí	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
19.10.25	Avaí - Criciúma	1:1
27.06.25	Criciúma - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
22.02.25	Avaí - Criciúma	0:3
12.02.24	Avaí - Criciúma	2:3
Brazilian Serie B
05.08.23	Avaí - Criciúma	1:0

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