Match Info

Serie B - Round 28

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Referee: Muniz dos Santos D. C. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, SportyNet, Vivo Play, Xsports, Zapping


	Avaí		Vila Nova

	1	X	2
	2.4	3	3	Watch
	2.55	2.95	2.70
	2.45	2.95	2.9	Watch
	2.57	3.04	3.16
	2.63	3.04	2.82	Watch
	2.5	3	3.1
	2.57	3.02	2.87	Watch
	2.48	3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.48)	3 ↓ (3.2)	2.93 ↑ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
37.1%

Draw
31.1%

Vila Nova
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

29.1%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

30.3%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	60%	20%

Avaí - Vila Nova Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 4. Gabriel Simples 3. Allyson 40. Reynaldo (C) 36. Douglas Teixeira 25. Paulo Vitor 77. Ze Ricardo 14. Daniel Penha 10. Jean Lucas 37. Rildo 19. Caio Suassuna	1. Helton Leite (G) 20. Nathan Camargo 4. Douglas Mendes 23. Jonathan Costa 13. Willian Formiga 5. Joao Vieira 15. Dudu 17. Everton Galdino 10. Marquinhos Gabriel (C) 99. Janderson 7. Andre Luis
Substitutes
59. Filipinho 23. Gabriel Cipriano 70. Gaspar 15. Guilherme Aquino 1. Igor Bohn (G) 26. Immig V. 20. Isaias 22. Joao Vitor 7. Leo Chu 8. Luiz Henrique 5. Romildo Del Piage 95. Wenderson	33. Bruno Xavier 29. Dalberson (G) 31. Dodo 70. Emerson Urso 18. Enzo Bizzotto 9. Gustavo Puskas 21. Higor Meritao 16. Igor Carius 11. Ryan 3. Tiago Pagnussat 8. Willian Maranhao
Coaches
Aal A.	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Willian Formiga 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Andre Luis ⚽, Janderson (A),
38', 1 - 1, Daniel Penha ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Douglas Teixeira 🟨,
63', Everton Galdino ↓, Emerson Urso ↑,
63', Marquinhos Gabriel ↓, Dodo ↑,
64', Caio Suassuna ↓, Isaias ↑,
65', Jean Lucas ↓, Gabriel Cipriano ↑,
65', Rildo ↓, Filipinho ↑,
68', Gabriel Simples ↓, Wenderson ↑,
82', Janderson ↓, Ryan ↑,
87', Douglas Mendes ↓, Willian Maranhao ↑,
87', Willian Formiga ↓, Tiago Pagnussat ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 1.

Avaí has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vila Nova is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Avaí: Jefferson Maciel (Injury) Juan Rocha (Injury) Leo Gamalho (Inactive) Quaresma (Inactive) Romildo Del Piage (Injury) Wallison (Injury)

There will not play in Vila Nova: Breno Augusto (Inactive) Dellatorre (Injury) Hayner (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Avaí: Daniel Penha (Personal Reasons)

There are questionable in Vila Nova: Anderson Jesus (Inactive) Rafa Silva (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:17. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vila Nova FC	32	17	7	8	44:31	13	58
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.58%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
09.09.26	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Avaí - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Avaí - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLWW
- Vila Nova FC
Brazilian Serie B
10.09.26	Vila Nova - Goiás	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Athletic Club - Vila Nova	5:0 ✺
30.08.26	Vila Nova - Ceará	2:0 ✺
23.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Vila Nova	0:0 ✺
19.08.26	Vila Nova - Ponte Preta	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
17.05.26	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:0
08.11.25	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:2
19.07.25	Avaí - Vila Nova	1:1
25.10.24	Avaí - Vila Nova	3:0
14.07.24	Vila Nova - Avaí	2:1
12.08.23	Vila Nova - Avaí	1:1
03.05.23	Avaí - Vila Nova	0:3

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