Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Ezio Scida (Crotone)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 254


	Crotone		Casertana

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.58	3.7	5.3
	1.59	3.85	6.06
	2.74	2.90	2.74	Watch
	1.57	3.72	5.17	Watch
	1.6	3.7	4.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↑ (1.73)	3.57 ↑ (3.48)	4.84 ↓ (4.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crotone
53.1%

Draw
27%

Casertana
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

26.8%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.3%

26.2%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crotone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Casertana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casertana than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Crotone - Casertana Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Crotone (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Merelli D. (G) 28. Andreoni C. 6. Di Pasquale D. 5. Cargnelutti R. 23. Groppelli F. 7. Vinicius 21. Sandri M. 96. Zunno M. 11. Murano J. 27. Maggio M. 9. Gomez G. (C)	1. De Lucia V. (G) 18. Oukhadda S. 13. Bacchetti L. (C) 33. Rocchi G. 94. Liotti D. 25. Toscano M. 16. Pezzella S. 10. Leone K. 9. Kallon Y. 90. Casarotto M. 20. Bentivegna A.
Substitutes
20. Berra F. 80. Bruno K. 32. Calvano S. 72. Cocetta N. 16. Gallo A. 25. Guerra W. 2. Leo D. 19. Marazzotti F. 33. Perlingieri M. 12. Pio Martino A. (G) 18. Piovanello E. 61. Sala A. (G) 8. Stronati R. 77. Vrenna M.	51. Arzillo V. 77. Capasso C. 21. Di Tommaso L. 3. Falasca M. 11. Galletta U. 6. Heinz J. 4. Kontek I. 5. Llano Massa M. T. 12. Merolla E. (G) 8. Proia F. 91. Vano M. 22. Vilardi A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Cargnelutti R. 🟥,
12', Murano J. ↓, Berra F. ↑,
30', Toscano M. 🟨,
45+1', Sandri M. 🟥,
45+3', Zunno M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Maggio M. ↓, Gallo A. ↑,
46', Zunno M. ↓, Stronati R. ↑,
46', Toscano M. ↓, Vano M. ↑,
56', Leone K. ↓, Proia F. ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Proia F. ⚽,
73', Casarotto M. 🟨,
73', Casarotto M. ↓, Llano Massa M. T. ↑,
74', Vinicius ↓, Piovanello E. ↑,
80', Liotti D. ↓, Falasca M. ↑,
80', Bentivegna A. ↓, Galletta U. ↑,
83', Oukhadda S. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/16~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C ~ Promotion ~ Play Offs (1/32~finals)).

Crotone is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casertana has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Crotone may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Crotone is a strong favorite.

We predict that Crotone will win today's game, with odds of 1.6.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crotone won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Crotone won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Crotone
Italian Serie C Group C
24.09.25	Atalanta U23 - Crotone	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Crotone - Siracusa	2:0 ✺
12.09.25	Potenza - Crotone	3:3 ✺
07.09.25	Crotone - Nuova Cosenza	0:0 ✺
31.08.25	Altamura - Crotone	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWTTW
- FC Casertana
Italian Serie C Group C
24.09.25	Foggia - Casertana	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Casertana - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Trapani - Casertana	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Casertana - Potenza	3:2 ✺
31.08.25	Benevento - Casertana	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
19.04.25	Casertana - Crotone	2:0
08.12.24	Crotone - Casertana	2:3
25.03.24	Crotone - Casertana	0:0
18.11.23	Casertana - Crotone	1:1
Coppa Italia
17.08.14	Crotone - Casertana	0:1 penalties

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