Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 3 July 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Luis "Pirata" de La Fuente (Boca del Río)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Fox Sports, FOX Sports Premium, TVC Deportes
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com


	Cruz Azul		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.68	3.6	4
	1.72	3.56	4.34
	1.76	3.7	4.79
				Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.83	3.78	4.15	Watch
	1.42	4.78	7.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.51)	3.84 ↓ (4.5)	4.73 ↑ (4.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
55.6%

Draw
24.5%

Once Caldas
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.2%

20.2%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

19.5%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cruz Azul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-1%)

Cruz Azul - Once Caldas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gudino A. (G)
7. Bogusz M.
3. Campos O.
4. Ditta W.
8. Faravelli L.
41. Gamboa B.
14. Morales A.
33. Piovi G.
15. Rivero I.
18. Romero L.
26. Vargas C.
Substitutes
24. Derbez L.
17. Garcia A.
38. Levy M.
42. Mendoza
23. Mier K. (G)
30. Ochoa E. (G)
36. Ramirez N.
29. Rotondi C.
40. Samano L.
31. Silva
13. Taboada
16. Zaleta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Sanchez L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gudino A. ↓, Mier K. ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Rivero I. ⚽,
69', 🟨,
79', 🟨,
81', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,
90+3', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,
90+6', 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Estadio Luis "Pirata" de La Fuente.

Cruz Azul is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Once Caldas has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Once Caldas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruz Azul is the undeniable favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 4.64 are the expected chance of winning is 19.59%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC
Club Friendly
27.06.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Cruz Azul	2:2 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
01.06.25	Cruz Azul - Vancouver Whitecaps	5:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
18.05.25	Club América - Cruz Azul	2:1 ✺
15.05.25	Cruz Azul - Club América	1:0 ✺
11.05.25	Cruz Azul - Club León	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWLWW
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
19.06.25	Once Caldas - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
16.06.25	Independiente Santa Fe - Once Caldas	1:0 ✺
11.06.25	Millonarios - Once Caldas	2:2 ✺
08.06.25	Once Caldas - Millonarios	0:0 ✺
05.06.25	Once Caldas - Independiente Santa Fe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTTL

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