Match Info

Liga MX Women - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Instalaciones La Noria Cancha 1 (Ciudad de Mexico)

Referee: Sanchez C. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, ViX Gratis, VIX+
South-america	ViX Latin America


	Cruz Azul		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	4.33
	1.45	4.45	5.15
	1.47	5.11	5.25
	1.20	6.75	10.32	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.16	Watch
	1.56	4.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (2.08)	4.79 ↑ (3.2)	5.79 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
64.2%

Draw
19.6%

Tijuana
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.4%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

29.8%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cruz Azul's performance.

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tijuana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cruz Azul than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cruz Azul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+10.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tijuana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cruz Azul - Tijuana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Cruz Azul (1.89) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Cruz Azul will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Cruz Azul will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Cruz Azul (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Godinez A. (G) 14. Blackwood D. 33. Chavarin A. 15. Grimaldo N. 23. Gutierrez I. 10. Lemos S. 9. Martinez A. 2. Miranda V. 3. Robe L. 4. Rodriguez Perez Y. 19. Valdez V. (C)	1. Madueno A. (G) 7. Borgella R. 2. Diaz K. 3. Enrigue J. (C) 24. Fong M. 10. Hancar K. 9. Magaia H. 8. Marroquin A. M. 17. Motau A. 4. Ojeda D. 28. Quintos B.
Substitutes
13. Calderon D. 28. Garcia A. 5. Gutierrez D. 17. Kirsch-Downs C. 8. Lomeli A. 16. Martinez L. 21. Martinez R. 60. Osorio H. 6. Rodriguez L. 1. Villeda M. (G)	22. Bautista E. 12. Ceja K. 26. Claiborne A. 25. Cota R. (G) 16. Curiel A. 11. Fuentes D. 21. Hernandez I. 18. Martinez N. 27. Parra L. 32. Rojo N.
Coaches
Testas D.	Romo J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Martinez A. ⚽,
27', 2 - 0, Grimaldo N. ⚽,
37', 2 - 1, Borgella R. ⚽,
38', Gutierrez I. ↓, Lomeli A. ↑,
39', 3 - 1, Chavarin A. ⚽,
43', 3 - 2, Magaia H. ⚽,
45+3', Blackwood D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Robe L. ↓, Martinez L. ↑,
56', 3 - 3, Hancar K. ⚽,
57', Magaia H. ↓, Rojo N. ↑,
63', Motau A. 🟨,
67', Martinez A. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
67', Grimaldo N. ↓, Gutierrez D. ↑,
72', Diaz K. 🟨,
80', Valdez V. ↓, Calderon D. ↑,
83', Fuentes D. 🟨,
89', 4 - 3, Calderon D. ⚽,
90+9', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 1.

Cruz Azul has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tijuana is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tijuana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cruz Azul is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Cruz Azul won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:15. (average 1.8:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
28.09.25	Pachuca - Cruz Azul	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Puebla - Cruz Azul	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Cruz Azul - Juárez	0:2 ✺
05.09.25	Mazatlan - Cruz Azul	1:4 ✺
30.08.25	Cruz Azul - Club León	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TWLWL
- Club Tijuana Women
Mexican Liga MX Women
25.09.25	Tijuana - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Mazatlan - Tijuana	0:3 ✺
07.09.25	Tijuana - Santos Laguna	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX Women
12.01.25	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	1:1
22.08.24	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	3:0
22.03.24	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	0:2
15.10.23	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	3:6
15.01.23	Tijuana - Cruz Azul	1:1
25.09.22	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	1:1
26.02.22	Cruz Azul - Tijuana	2:2

Cruz Azul - Tijuana: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide