Match Info

BRAZIL: Matogrossense - Round 5

Date: 29 January 2025, Wednesday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Cuiabá		Luverdense

	1	X	2
	1.42	3.6	7.5
	1.43	3.7	7.6
	1.45	3.3	9.11
	1.45	3.57	8.46	Watch
	1.42	3.72	7.95
	1.43	3.7	7.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.56)	3.6 ↑ (3.53)	8.04 ↑ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
63.4%

Draw
25.3%

Luverdense
11.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

25.7%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

24.9%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cuiabá's performance.

Luverdense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cuiabá that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luverdense than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luverdense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cuiabá - Luverdense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 3. Bruno Alves (C) 27. Denilson 22. Derik Lacerda 44. Gabriel 77. Jadson 19. Léo Ataíde 99. Lucas Cardoso 30. Lucas Mineiro 10. Max 6. Sander	1. Leonardo (G) 7. Beto 11. Bruninho 10. Everton Heleno 9. Flavio Torres 5. Humberto 8. Iago Felipe 4. Joao Miquelim 3. Lazaro (C) 2. Raul Prata 6. Rubens Carvalho
Substitutes
1. Arthur (G) 55. Calebe Costa 20. David 15. Dudu 11. Eliel 26. Joao Victor 13. Leo Oliveira 23. Marcelo Henrique 7. Pedrinho 33. Ruan Oliveira	20. Adriano Klein 17. Andrey Nunes 12. Capellari (G) 15. Douglas Silva 18. Erik 14. Gabriel Kazu 21. Gustavo Sarjani 13. Jefferson Feijao 16. Joao Vitor 25. Junior (G) 22. Leozinho 19. Lucas Alves

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Max ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', 2 - 0, Derik Lacerda ⚽,
64', 🟨,
68', 2 - 1, Andrey Nunes ⚽,
77', 🟨,
79', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
18.01.25	Cuiabá - Mixto	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Operário Ltda - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
08.12.24	Cuiabá - Vasco da Gama	1:2 ✺
05.12.24	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
30.11.24	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTLLL
- Luverdense EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
26.01.25	Luverdense - União Rondonópolis	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
22.01.25	Operário MS - Luverdense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
18.01.25	Luverdense - Nova Mutum	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Sport Sinop - Luverdense	1:2 ✺
11.01.25	Luverdense - Primavera AC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
24.03.24	Cuiabá - Luverdense	4:3
17.03.24	Luverdense - Cuiabá	0:1
01.02.24	Luverdense - Cuiabá	1:2
01.04.23	Cuiabá - Luverdense	5:0
18.03.23	Luverdense - Cuiabá	0:0
26.02.23	Cuiabá - Luverdense	5:0
29.01.22	Luverdense - Cuiabá	2:1

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