Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 36

Date: 30 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Peru	L1 Max
Ukraine	Sport 2
World	Fanatiz


	Cuiabá		Bahia

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.4	1.85	Watch
	4.1	3.4	1.93
	4	3.5	1.9	Watch
	4.38	3.54	1.92
	4.37	3.46	1.88	Watch
	3.9	3.3	1.91
	4.21	3.52	1.89	Watch
	4	3.5	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.18 ↑ (3.11)	3.45 ↑ (3.1)	1.9 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
22.6%

Draw
27.4%

Bahia
49.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.3%

30.4%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

30.8%

38.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cuiabá's form might have worsened.

Bahia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Bahia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cuiabá, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Bahia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	9.5%	81%

Cuiabá - Bahia Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Bahia will win (votes: 17 - 81%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bahia: 64.2% – 97.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walter (C) 2. Matheus Alexandre 4. Marllon 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 30. Lucas Mineiro 88. Fernando Sobral 10. Max Alves 11. Eliel 9. Pitta I. 25. Clayson	23. Adriel (G) 2. Gilberto 3. Gabriel Xavier 4. Kanu 46. Luciano Juba 19. Caio Alexandre 6. Jean Lucas 10. Everton Ribeiro (C) 8. Cauly 7. Ademir 17. Rodriguez L.
Substitutes
27. Denilson Alves 44. Gabriel 77. Jadson 7. Jonathan Cafu 63. Juan Tavares 31. Lopes F. (G) 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 20. Souza D.	13. Arias S. 11. Biel 40. Cicinho 14. de Pena C. 9. Everaldo 22. Marcos Felipe (G) 26. Nicolas Acevedo 21. Rafael Ratao 16. Thaciano 77. Tiago 31. Vitor Hugo 20. Yago Felipe
Coaches
Franco B.	Rogerio Ceni

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
16', 1 - 0, Eliel ⚽, Pitta I. (A),
23', Max Alves 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Ademir ⚽, Jean Lucas (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Caio Alexandre ↓, Nicolas Acevedo ↑,
46', Everton Ribeiro ↓, de Pena C. ↑,
66', Eliel ↓, Jadson ↑,
66', Max Alves ↓, Railan ↑,
72', Fernando Sobral 🟨,
72', Gilberto ↓, Arias S. ↑,
72', Ademir ↓, Everaldo ↑,
72', Jean Lucas ↓, Thaciano ↑,
80', Pitta I. 🟨,
82', Fernando Sobral ↓, Denilson Alves ↑,
82', Clayson ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Rodriguez L. ⚽, Cauly (A),
85', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
90', Jonathan Cafu 🟨,
90', Matheus Alexandre ↓, Souza D. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Cuiabá is Relegated to Serie B

Cuiabá is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Bahia has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Bahia is a favorite.

There will not play in Cuiabá: Andre Luis (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Derik Lacerda (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Bahia: Iago (Muscle Injury)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cuiabá won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.4:0.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Cuiabá won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
23.11.24	Juventude - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
20.11.24	Cuiabá - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Botafogo RJ - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
02.11.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
28.10.24	Cuiabá - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 TLTTL
- EC Bahia
Brazilian Serie A
24.11.24	Bahia - Athletico Paranaense	1:1 ✺
20.11.24	Bahia - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Juventude - Bahia	2:1 ✺
05.11.24	Bahia - São Paulo	0:3 ✺
28.10.24	Vasco da Gama - Bahia	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
13.07.24	Bahia - Cuiabá	1:2
09.11.23	Bahia - Cuiabá	0:3
08.07.23	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:1
21.11.21	Bahia - Cuiabá	0:0
07.08.21	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:1

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