Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A Betano - Round 37

Date: 5 December 2024, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol
Peru	L1 Max
World	El Canal del Futbol app, Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.41	4.4	8.75
	1.4	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.39	4.51	9.89
	1.41	4.36	9.18	Watch
	1.36	4.2	9
	1.4	4.4	9	Watch
	1.4	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.43)	4.38 ↑ (4.28)	8.92 ↑ (7.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
67.8%

Draw
21.6%

Cuiabá
10.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

22%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

18.4%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Cuiabá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	30%	0%

Fluminense - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 3. Silva T. (C) 29. Thiago Santos 31. Fuentes G. 5. Bernal F. 8. Martinelli 21. Arias J. 45. Lima 90. Serna K. 14. Cano G.	1. Walter (G) 2. Matheus Alexandre 34. Bruno Alves (C) 33. Alan Empereur 23. Ramon 27. Denilson Alves 88. Fernando Sobral 30. Lucas Mineiro 11. Eliel 9. Pitta I. 25. Clayson
Substitutes
25. Antonio Carlos 23. Guga 37. Isaac 35. Joao Neto 19. Kaua Elias 11. Keno 26. Manoel 16. Nonato 7. Renato Augusto 28. Riquelme Felipe 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	22. Derik Lacerda 15. Dudu 44. Gabriel 77. Jadson 63. Juan Tavares 49. Kauan Cristtyan 31. Lopes F. (G) 91. Luis Henrique 4. Marllon 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 21. Railan 20. Souza D.
Coaches
Mano Menezes	Franco B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Walter 🟨,
29', Arias J. (Pen),
39', Eliel 🟨,
41', Bernal F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Martinelli ↓, Keno ↑,
46', Eliel ↓, Derik Lacerda ↑,
46', Fernando Sobral ↓, Railan ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Serna K. ⚽,
61', Serna K. 🟨,
66', Keno 🟨,
71', Serna K. ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
71', Cano G. ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
77', Pitta I. ↓, Jadson ↑,
78', Ramon 🟨,
84', Denilson Alves ↓, Dudu ↑,
89', Fuentes G. ↓, Guga ↑,
90+1', Clayson ↓, Souza D. ↑,
90+4', Alan Empereur 🟨,
90+5', Arias J. ↓, Isaac ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Cuiabá is Relegated to Serie B

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 4.

Recent matches Fluminense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cuiabá is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Cuiabá could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fluminense is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Ignacio (Injury) Lele (Injury)

There are questionable in Cuiabá: Derik Lacerda (Thigh Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:5 (average 1.1:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:0 (average 1.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
01.12.24	Athletico Paranaense - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
26.11.24	Fluminense - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
22.11.24	Fluminense - Fortaleza	2:2 ✺
08.11.24	Internacional RS - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
01.11.24	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTTLT
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie A
30.11.24	Cuiabá - Bahia	1:2 ✺
23.11.24	Juventude - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
20.11.24	Cuiabá - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Botafogo RJ - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
02.11.24	Red Bull Bragantino - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
21.07.24	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1
30.09.23	Cuiabá - Fluminense	3:0
13.05.23	Fluminense - Cuiabá	2:0
07.08.22	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0
16.04.22	Cuiabá - Fluminense	0:1
20.09.21	Cuiabá - Fluminense	2:2
06.06.21	Fluminense - Cuiabá	1:0

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