Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)

Referee: Junior R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, SportyNet, Xsports


	Cuiabá		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.40	3.80	Watch
	1.98	3.10	3.70
	2.00	3.30	3.70	Watch
	2.05	3.33	4.11
	2.1	3.26	3.56	Watch
	1.99	3.25	4.05
	1.98	3.36	3.76	Watch
	2.03	3.20	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↓ (2.2)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)	3.79 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
46.6%

Draw
28.6%

Náutico Capibaribe
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.4%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cuiabá will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Carlos (G) 13. Joao Basso 5. Calebe Costa 4. Vitor Mendes 2. Igor Inocencio 30. Raul (C) 20. David Miguel 36. Lorenzo 41. Kauan Cristtyan 77. Jean Dias 90. Fabio Gomes	1. Muriel Becker (G) 93. Reginaldo 34. Wanderson 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 5. Auremir 7. Vinicius 10. Jean Carlos (C) 24. Borasi B. 19. Kauan Maranhao
Substitutes
12. Busatto G. (G) 11. Eliel 14. Eric Melo 26. Joao Silva 91. Luis Soares 97. Luiz Otavio 96. Pedro H. 7. Ramon 27. Rodrigo Rodrigues 29. Vinicius Peixoto 70. Wesley Dias 53. Weverson	2. Arnaldo 88. Caio 78. Danielzinho 72. Derek 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 13. Indio 29. Junior Todinho 16. Luiz Claudio 22. Nunez P. 6. Ryan Carlos
Coaches
Barros E.	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
33', 1 - 0, Lorenzo ⚽, Jean Dias (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Auremir ↓, Nunez P. ↑,
46', Reginaldo ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
46', Borasi B. ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Kauan Cristtyan ⚽, Fabio Gomes (A),
61', Jean Dias ↓, Eliel ↑,
62', David Miguel ↓, Wesley Dias ↑,
63', 3 - 0, Kauan Cristtyan ⚽,
67', Jean Carlos ↓, Danielzinho ↑,
67', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Derek ↑,
68', Junior Todinho 🟨,
73', Kauan Cristtyan ↓, Ramon ↑,
73', Fabio Gomes ↓, Pedro H. ↑,
80', Wanderson 🟨,
85', Igor Inocencio ↓, Rodrigo Rodrigues ↑,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13th and 14th).

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Cuiabá could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Cuiabá holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Cuiabá: Marcelo Carne (Injury) Pepe (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Náutico: Leo Indio (Inactive) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury) Paulo Sergio (Injury) Samuel Felix (Yellow Cards).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Cuiabá has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:6 (averaging 0.4:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cuiabá against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:1 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Cuiaba	32	11	14	7	32:25	7	47
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Cuiabá - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.48%, but this team recently wins 31% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Cuiabá - Athletic Club	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Criciúma - Cuiabá	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Botafogo SP - Cuiabá	1:2 ✺
22.08.26	Cuiabá - Goiás	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWLWT
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
15.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	3:3 ✺
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	1:0
22.12.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	2:0
29.09.20	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
Copa do Brasil
14.03.18	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
28.02.18	Náutico Capibaribe - Cuiabá	2:1

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