Match Info

Serie B - Round 27

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Mineirão (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Goncalves K. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	América Mineiro		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.30	2.20	Watch
	2.87	3.30	2.20
	3.00	3.10	2.43	Watch
	3.18	3.37	2.37
	3	3.28	2.35
	3.00	3.25	2.40
	3.08	3.18	2.30	Watch
	3.05	3.30	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2)	3.26 ↓ (3.35)	2.31 ↓ (3.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
30.8%

Draw
28.7%

Náutico Capibaribe
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

27.7%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.9%

27.9%

25.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that América Mineiro's form might have worsened.

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Náutico Capibaribe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for América Mineiro, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Bruno Brigido (G) 31. Fabio 45. Ricardo Silva (C) 4. Rafa Barcelos 25. Ostchega T. 88. Gustavo Barreto 55. Otavio Goncalves 37. Julio Cesar 9. Willian Bigode 7. Guilherme Parede 20. Paulo Victor	1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 72. Derek 10. Jean Carlos (C) 19. Kauan Maranhao 7. Vinicius
Substitutes
5. Elizari F. 8. Felipe Amaral 32. Filipe Dahora 1. Gustavo (G) 13. Heitor 39. Italo G. 93. Jorge Jimenez 99. Marcelo Macola 30. Montes L. 14. Pineiro R. 77. Segovia M. 3. Sosa L.	5. Auremir 24. Borasi B. 78. Danielzinho 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 29. Junior Todinho 16. Luiz Claudio 22. Nunez P. 93. Reginaldo 6. Ryan Carlos 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Gonzaga Leite D.	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Willian Bigode ⚽, Paulo Victor (A),
19', Arnaldo 🟨,
26', 2 - 0, Ostchega T. ⚽,
28', Betao ↓, Ryan Carlos ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
46', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
46', Derek ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
56', Samuel Felix ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
59', Muriel Becker 🟨,
64', Otavio Goncalves ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
74', Paulo Victor 🟨,
80', Julio Cesar ↓, Segovia M. ↑,
80', Guilherme Parede ↓, Marcelo Macola ↑,
88', Gustavo Barreto ↓, Felipe Amaral ↑,
88', Willian Bigode ↓, Pineiro R. ↑,
89', 2 - 1, Junior Todinho ⚽, Vinicius (A),
90+5', Willian Bigode 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, América MG won 2.

América MG is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Náutico is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in América MG: Ale (Injury) Cassio Meneses (Knee Injury) Eduardo Person (Inactive) Emerson Santos (Injury) Gabriel Domingos (Injury) Gonzalo Mastriani (Inactive) Segovia M. (Injury)

There will not play in Náutico: Luiz Felipe (Injury) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury) Paulo Sergio (Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Felipe Amaral (Inactive) Yago Souza (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, América MG won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, América MG won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
19	America MG	32	4	5	23	21:53	-32	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Brazilian Serie B
04.09.26	CRB Maceio - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	América Mineiro - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
24.08.26	Sport Recife - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
20.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LWLLL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
03.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
28.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	4:0
12.01.21	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	0:0
09.10.20	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
11.08.17	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
12.05.17	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	0:0
12.09.15	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
05.06.15	Náutico Capibaribe - América Mineiro	2:1

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