Match Info

Serie B - Round 25

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Náutico Capibaribe		Athletic Club

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.7	4.5
	1.82	3.25	4.20
	1.8	3.35	4.2
	1.87	3.46	4.82
	1.81	3.47	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.65
	1.74	3.68	4.48
	1.79	3.45	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.98)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	4.47 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
52.1%

Draw
27%

Athletic Club
20.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47%

28.2%

24.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

27.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Athletic Club has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Club than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Ryan Carlos 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 72. Derek 10. Jean Carlos (C) 24. Borasi B. 19. Kauan Maranhao	1. Luan Polli (G) 2. Douglas Pele 19. Pool J. 4. Belezi (C) 23. Enzo Santos 16. Joao Miguel 14. Yago Santos 17. Kauan Rodrigues 11. Max 21. Vera D. 20. Aponza W.
Substitutes
5. Auremir 3. Betao 88. Caio 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 29. Junior Todinho 16. Luiz Claudio 22. Nunez P. 93. Reginaldo 7. Vinicius 34. Wanderson 17. Wendell	3. Alexandre Pena 18. Assis 8. Cabezas G. 5. Felipe Negrucci 13. Felipe Vieira 10. Gustavinho 15. Jota 9. Kauan Lindes 6. Marcelo Henrique 12. Tony (G)
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Alex Souza

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Vera D. ⚽, Max (A),
44', Derek 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ryan Carlos ↓, Betao ↑,
57', Vera D. ↓, Assis ↑,
57', Pool J. ↓, Felipe Negrucci ↑,
58', Samuel Felix ↓, Vinicius ↑,
58', Kauan Maranhao ↓, Junior Todinho ↑,
59', Joao Miguel 🟥,
62', Aponza W. ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
63', Douglas Pele 🟨,
70', Yago Santos ↓, Jota ↑,
70', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
70', Max ↓, Marcelo Henrique ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Derek ⚽,
80', Derek ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
90+1', 2 - 1, Luiz Claudio ⚽, Betao (A),
90+2', Guruceaga G. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 10).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Náutico is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Náutico: Gustavo Henrique (Inactive) Junior Todinho (Injury) Luiz Felipe (Injury) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury) Paulo Sergio (Injury) Vinicius (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Athletic: Diogo Batista (Red Card) Rodrigo Gelado (Injury) Sidimar (Injury) Tavares R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Zeca (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Athletic Club	34	10	14	10	40:39	1	44
15	Nautico	34	11	10	13	39:42	-3	43

Last Results with these Odds

Náutico Capibaribe - the odds 1.98 are the expected chance of winning is 46.99%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
23.08.26	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
18.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
09.08.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTTT
- Athletic Club MG
Brazilian Serie B
24.08.26	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
20.08.26	Athletic Club - CRB Maceio	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	América Mineiro - Athletic Club	1:3 ✺
09.08.26	Athletic Club - Criciúma	2:0 ✺
28.07.26	Ponte Preta - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
Brazilian Serie C
21.07.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Athletic Club	2:2

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