Match Info

I Liqa - Round 23

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday


	Cəbrayıl		Mingachevir

	1	X	2
				Watch
	8.3	4.65	1.29
	8.09	4.87	1.28
	2.40	3.23	2.73	Watch
	9.5	4.4	1.29
	8.9	4.55	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.44 ↑ (4.65)	4.34 ↑ (3.75)	1.58 (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cəbrayıl
13.5%

Draw
23.1%

Mingachevir
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

23.9%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

23.3%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cəbrayıl has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cəbrayıl's form might have worsened.

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mingachevir's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cəbrayıl than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cəbrayıl, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mingachevir, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Huseynli S. ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, Achimi D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
55', 2 - 1, Kalunga K. ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by Cəbrayıl have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mingachevir is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Mingachevir is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cəbrayıl won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cəbrayıl won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mingachevir	3	0	1	2	3:7	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cəbrayıl FK
Azerbaijan First Division
15.04.26	Shahdag Qusar - Cəbrayıl	0:0 ✺
08.04.26	Cəbrayıl - Zagatala	3:2 ✺
02.04.26	MOIK Baku - Cəbrayıl	2:1 ✺
19.03.26	Difai Ağsu - Cəbrayıl	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Cəbrayıl - Zagatala	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWLTW
- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
16.04.26	Mingachevir - Difai Ağsu	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Shimal - Mingachevir	0:3 ✺
03.04.26	Mingachevir - Şəfa	5:2 ✺
18.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
10.12.25	Mingachevir - Cəbrayıl	2:0
17.09.25	Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir	1:3
17.04.25	Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir	2:0
13.02.25	Mingachevir - Cəbrayıl	0:0
24.10.24	Cəbrayıl - Mingachevir	3:0

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