Match Info

I Liqa - Round 21

Date: 9 April 2026, Thursday


	Shimal		Mingachevir

	1	X	2
				Watch
	11	5.35	1.2
	9.99	5.67	1.19
	7.09	4.48	1.37	Watch
	13	5	1.2
	10.1	5.05	1.28
	6.25	4.2	1.38
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.57 ↑ (6.25)	4.96 ↑ (4.2)	1.27 ↓ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shimal
9.6%

Draw
18.4%

Mingachevir
72%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.3%

21.2%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.9%

20.6%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shimal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Mingachevir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mingachevir's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimal than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mingachevir than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mingachevir, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Shimal - Mingachevir Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 3)
62', 0 - 1, Haziyev B. (Penalty Awarded),
73', 0 - 2, Kalunga K. ⚽,
87', 0 - 3, Haziyev B. ⚽,

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, Mingachevir is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shimal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, Shimal won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mingachevir	3	0	1	2	3:7	-4	1
9	Shimal	3	0	1	2	3:7	-4	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Shimal
Azerbaijan First Division
03.04.26	Shahdag Qusar - Shimal	0:2 ET ✺
19.03.26	Shimal - Zagatala	0:0 ✺
11.03.26	Shimal - Şəfa	0:2 ✺
05.03.26	Zagatala - Shimal	3:4 ✺
24.02.26	Shimal - Cəbrayıl	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 39.1 WTLWW
- Mingachevir FK
Azerbaijan First Division
03.04.26	Mingachevir - Şəfa	5:2 ✺
18.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	1:1 ✺
12.03.26	Mingachevir - Səbail	0:1 ✺
05.03.26	Baku Sporting - Mingachevir	0:1 ✺
25.02.26	Mingachevir - MOIK Baku	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan First Division
07.02.26	Shimal - Mingachevir	0:3
16.10.25	Mingachevir - Shimal	3:1

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