Match Info

I Lyga - Round 20

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Dainava Alytus		BFA Vilnius

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.40	3.50
	1.8	3.4	3.65
	1.73	3.67	3.82
	1.76	3.75	3.85	Watch
	1.7	3.6	3.8
	1.9	3.72	3.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.22)	3.59 ↑ (3.3)	3.69 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dainava Alytus
50.5%

Draw
25.1%

BFA Vilnius
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

27.4%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dainava Alytus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dainava Alytus's performance.

BFA Vilnius has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and BFA Vilnius might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dainava Alytus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dainava Alytus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that BFA Vilnius could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 and 7)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dainava won 4.

Dainava is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

BFA is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Recently, Dainava has had a series of home games.

Dainava is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Dainava won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dainava won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 4:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43
8	Dainava Alytus	25	11	7	7	35:25	10	40

Last Results with these Odds

Dainava Alytus - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 40.77%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dainava Alytus
Lithuanian Division 2
08.08.26	Dainava Alytus - Babrungas Plungė	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Dainava Alytus - Tauras Tauragė	1:1 ✺
28.07.26	Dainava Alytus - Transinvest 2	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
24.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Transinvest	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WTWWW
- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
08.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Transinvest 2	4:2 ✺
02.08.26	FA Šiauliai B - BFA Vilnius	1:0 ✺
26.07.26	BFA Vilnius - BE1 NFA Kaunas	3:1 ✺
19.07.26	Ekranas - BFA Vilnius	1:4 ✺
02.07.26	BFA Vilnius - Ekranas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
04.04.26	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	0:0
21.08.22	Dainava Alytus - BFA Vilnius	5:1
Lithuanian Cup
15.07.20	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	1:2
Lithuanian Division 2
27.06.20	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	0:1
21.08.19	Dainava Alytus - BFA Vilnius	3:2
14.04.19	BFA Vilnius - Dainava Alytus	2:1

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