Match Info

I Lyga - Round 17

Date: 26 July 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	BFA Vilnius		BE1 NFA Kaunas

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.40
	2.48	3.35	2.40
	2.64	3.52	2.31
	2.64	3.57	2.30	Watch
	2.55	3.45	2.20
	2.49	3.52	2.54
	3.3	3.55	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (3.3)	3.46 ↓ (3.55)	2.29 ↑ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BFA Vilnius
34.2%

Draw
26.2%

BE1 NFA Kaunas
39.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.1%

25.2%

47.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.6%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BFA Vilnius has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in BFA Vilnius's performance.

BE1 NFA Kaunas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and BE1 NFA Kaunas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BFA Vilnius than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BFA Vilnius that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for BE1 NFA Kaunas than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that BE1 NFA Kaunas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

BFA Vilnius - BE1 NFA Kaunas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
36', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', 1 - 1, ⚽,
75', 2 - 1, ⚽,
78', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 7 and 5)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, BFA won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

BFA may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

BE1 NFA could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, BFA won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, BFA won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	BE1 NFA	24	16	2	6	44:24	20	50
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39:35	4	43

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BFA Vilnius
Lithuanian Division 2
19.07.26	Ekranas - BFA Vilnius	1:4 ✺
02.07.26	BFA Vilnius - Ekranas	3:0 ✺
28.06.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - BFA Vilnius	0:1 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
23.06.26	BFA Vilnius - Kauno Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
Lithuanian Division 2
20.06.26	BFA Vilnius - Hegelmann Litauen 2	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WWWLL
- BE1 NFA Kaunas
Lithuanian Division 2
01.07.26	Atmosfera Mažeikiai - BE1 NFA Kaunas	0:1 ✺
26.06.26	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Žalgiris Vilnius 2	2:1 ✺
19.06.26	Babrungas Plungė - BE1 NFA Kaunas	1:0 ✺
12.06.26	BE1 NFA Kaunas - Tauras Tauragė	1:0 ✺
30.05.26	Neptūnas - BE1 NFA Kaunas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
13.03.26	BE1 NFA Kaunas - BFA Vilnius	3:1
26.09.25	BE1 NFA Kaunas - BFA Vilnius	0:0
24.05.25	BFA Vilnius - BE1 NFA Kaunas	3:0
14.09.24	BFA Vilnius - BE1 NFA Kaunas	0:1
26.04.24	BE1 NFA Kaunas - BFA Vilnius	1:0
16.09.23	BFA Vilnius - BE1 NFA Kaunas	0:1
20.04.23	BE1 NFA Kaunas - BFA Vilnius	2:1

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