Match Info

Pernambucano - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Venue Estadio Municipal Odilon Ferreira Dos Santos (Sertania)

Referee: Martins M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Decisão		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	3.95	3.25	1.88
	4.09	3.23	1.9
	4	3.23	1.88
	3.8	3	1.85
	4.19	3.16	1.83
	4.2	3.25	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.04 ↓ (4.54)	3.19 ↓ (3.41)	1.88 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Decisão
22.6%

Draw
28.7%

Santa Cruz Recife
48.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

27%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

26.2%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Decisão has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Decisão than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Joao Gabriel (G) 2. Almeida da Silva K. D. 19. Bambam 5. Caio Bahia 7. Fernando Portel 3. Israel 6. Mateus Rodrigues 11. Mosquito 18. Pablinho 4. Victor Ramon 10. Xandinho	12. Rokenedy (G) 26. Alex Ruan 4. Ianson 14. Israel 13. Matheus Vinicius 20. Patrick Allan 15. Pedro Favela 9. Quirino 18. Vitinho 8. Wagner Balotelli 10. Willian Junior
Substitutes
15. Alessandro 21. Cesar Leite M. 16. Dayvisson 8. Henrique Araujo 20. Jonas 9. Luis Lipek 13. Marolla 1. Mateus Raffler (G) 14. Pedrao 17. Richarles	5. Andrey 21. Fabiel L. 17. Gabriel Galhardo 25. Gabriel Souza (G) 22. Harley 16. Matheus Castilho 2. Pedro Costa 6. Rodrigues 19. Vini Hora
Coaches
Kinho Forgiarini	Cortez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Israel ⚽,
32', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
38', Victor Ramon ↓, Jonas ↑,
44', 0 - 2, Matheus Vinicius ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Vitinho 🟨,
58', Xandinho ↓, Cesar Leite M. ↑,
58', Mosquito ↓, Richarles ↑,
60', Almeida da Silva K. D. 🟨,
63', Vitinho ↓, Pedro Costa ↑,
64', Alex Ruan ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
70', Mateus Rodrigues 🟨,
75', Fernando Portel 🟨,
75', Willian Junior ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
82', Pablinho ↓, Luis Lipek ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Bambam ⚽,
86', Patrick Allan ↓, Matheus Castilho ↑,
86', Israel ↓, Gabriel Galhardo ↑,
90+2', Rokenedy 🟨,
90+4', Cesar Leite M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Santa Cruz is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Decisão won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:6. (average 0.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Decisão won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Decisão FC
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
31.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Decisão	0:1 ✺
28.01.26	Decisão - Vitória das Tabocas	0:4 ✺
25.01.26	Maguary - Decisão	3:4 ✺
21.01.26	Sport Recife - Decisão	5:0 ✺
17.01.26	Decisão - Jaguar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31 WLWLW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
31.01.26	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Jaguar	6:0 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
21.01.26	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Vitória das Tabocas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
11.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	3:0
11.01.25	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
15.03.20	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	2:1

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