The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Defensores de Belgrano 40.7%
Draw 37%
Atlético de Rafaela 22.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
30.9%
35.9%
33.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32%
37.1%
32%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Defensores de Belgrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Defensores de Belgrano's performance.
Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético de Rafaela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Defensores de Belgrano than the current prediction. (-8.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Defensores de Belgrano that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético de Rafaela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
36.4%
54.5%
9.1%
Defensores de Belgrano - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions
Users Predictions:
11 users predict this event. Defensores will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Atlético Rafaela will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Medina A. (G) 4. Magallanes D. 2. Perez A. 6. Gamarra G. 3. Sanchez F. 5. Gutierrez I. 8. De Tomasso J. 10. Benitez A. 11. Moyano P. 7. Aguirre E. (C) 9. Dellarossa J.
1. Bergia M. (G) 4. Solveyra A. 2. Ramos N. 6. Ponce F. 3. Wuattier E. 8. Capurro J. 5. Soloa F. 11. Cainelli N. 7. Moreno M. 9. Leineker C. 10. Nouet F.
Substitutes
20. Aquilino G. 17. Ciccolini L. 18. Garcia D. 16. Gomez B. 15. Jerez Silva L. 12. Nocetti N. (G) 14. Perez I. 19. Tcherkaski F. 13. Vaquer N.
17. Bonifacio J. 13. Fernandez G. 16. Fernandez M. 14. Flores L. 12. Martinez R. (G) 19. Obando A. 20. Protti I. 18. Quiroga M. 15. Suarez R.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Ponce F. 🟨,
22', Aguirre E. 🟥,
23', Ponce F. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Benitez A. ⚽, Magallanes D. (A),
29', Moreno M. ↓, Fernandez G. ↑,
44', Fernandez G. 🟨,
45+2', Gutierrez I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Solveyra A. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
46', Capurro J. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
46', Nouet F. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Quiroga M. ⚽, Flores L. (A),
58', Moyano P. ↓, Gomez Barrionuevo M. ↑,
58', Dellarossa J. ↓, Tcherkaski F. ↑,
58', Gutierrez I. ↓, Ciccolini L. ↑,
71', Gamarra G. ↓, Vaquer N. ↑,
77', Wuattier E. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
83', Sanchez F. ↓, Perez I. ↑,
90+4', Magallanes D. 🟨,
Preview
One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Defensores won 2.
Defensores is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Atlético Rafaela's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Defensores may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Defensores is seen as the favorite.
In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Defensores won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:12. (average 1.1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Defensores won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.2:1).
Watch
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Medina A. (G) 
Ramos N. 
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