Match Info

CHILE: PRIMERA B - ROUND 21

Date: 4 August 2023, Friday


	Deportes Santa Cruz		Deportes Puerto Montt

	1	X	2
	1.93	3.2	3.4
	1.92	3.15	3.75
	2.02	3.22	3.99
	2	3.1	3.5
	1.91	3.3	3.85	Watch
	2	3.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.04)	3.21 ↑ (3.08)	3.65 ↑ (3.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Santa Cruz
46.5%

Draw
28.4%

Deportes Puerto Montt
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.7%

29.6%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

25%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Santa Cruz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Deportes Puerto Montt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Santa Cruz than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportes Santa Cruz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Puerto Montt than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Puerto Montt could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Puerto Montt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Velazco M. (G) 22. Opazo Y. 3. Pino Villalon J. 19. Flores E. 11. Ayala F. 18. Rodrigues A. 29. Diaz C. 10. Becica A. (C) 8. Lemmo I. 9. Pernia E. 27. Munoz P.	1. Retamal D. (G) 13. Silva Alamos M. I. 17. Villegas Jara G. 20. Urzua D. 21. Manzano F. 19. Abarzua Sepulveda J. P. 10. Rosales R. 36. Bandez J. D. 11. Soza Quezada C. 37. Gorocito A. 14. Colossi M.
Substitutes
5. Bustamante B. 12. Flores G. (G) 23. Gaete J. 24. Letelier A. 7. Maturana N. 26. Meneses M. 28. Vilches E.	30. Aguila Miralles F. I. (G) 16. Antinirre H. 35. Barrientos F. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 22. Melivilu Fuentes C. 9. Opazo D. 8. Pucheta E.

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Segunda Division).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportes Santa Cruz won 2.

Deportes Santa Cruz is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Puerto Montt has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Deportes Santa Cruz have a series of guest games.

Deportes Santa Cruz will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Deportes Santa Cruz won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportes Santa Cruz won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Santa Cruz
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
30.07.23	Barnechea - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:0 ✺
24.07.23	Deportes Santa Cruz - Universidad de Concepción	1:1 ✺
17.07.23	Deportes La Serena - Deportes Santa Cruz	0:3 ✺
Chilean Cup
12.07.23	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Santa Cruz	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.07.23	Rangers de Talca - Deportes Santa Cruz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LTWLL
- Deportes Puerto Montt
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
29.07.23	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Iquique	2:2 ✺
23.07.23	Cobreloa - Deportes Puerto Montt	1:0 ✺
15.07.23	Deportes Puerto Montt - Santiago Wanderers	0:2 ✺
08.07.23	Deportes Puerto Montt - Universidad de Concepción	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
02.07.23	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Puerto Montt	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.03.23	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Santa Cruz	1:2
25.09.22	Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Puerto Montt	0:2
30.04.22	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Santa Cruz	3:0
05.09.21	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Santa Cruz	2:2
02.05.21	Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Puerto Montt	1:0
28.10.20	Deportes Puerto Montt - Deportes Santa Cruz	4:1
10.09.20	Deportes Santa Cruz - Deportes Puerto Montt	0:1

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