Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 41

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz)

Referee: Trujillo Suarez D. (Esp)


	Deportivo Alavés		Málaga

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	6	Watch
	1.63	3.3	5.5
	1.67	3.6	5.4	Watch
	1.69	3.63	5.86
	1.67	3.55	5.65	Watch
	1.67	3.45	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.44)	3.51 ↓ (3.6)	5.67 ↓ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Alavés
56.5%

Draw
26.9%

Málaga
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

25.3%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.4%

29.7%

9.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Alavés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Alavés's form might have worsened.

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Málaga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Alavés than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Alavés, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Deportivo Alavés - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Alavés will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

Alavés has the most likely position - 2 (21.87%), project points - 70, currently - 67, not chance of relegated, a good chance of prom. playoffs (67%), a chance of promoted (50%), a small chance of win league (11%).

Málaga has the most likely position - 19 (86.79%), project points - 45, currently - 43, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has quality 34, importance 56, match rating 45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Alavés is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Málaga is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alavés could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alavés is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alavés won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Alavés won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés
Spanish LaLiga2
14.05.23	Albacete Balompié - Deportivo Alavés	1:1 ✺
05.05.23	Deportivo Alavés - Granada	1:1 ✺
29.04.23	Levante - Deportivo Alavés	2:0 ✺
23.04.23	Deportivo Alavés - Leganés	2:1 ✺
16.04.23	Sporting de Gijón - Deportivo Alavés	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTLWT
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
13.05.23	Málaga - Mirandés	2:0 ✺
07.05.23	Ponferradina - Málaga	2:0 ✺
01.05.23	Málaga - Huesca	0:0 ✺
23.04.23	Lugo - Málaga	0:2 ✺
16.04.23	Málaga - Cartagena	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
18.12.22	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	1:0
Spanish LaLiga
06.05.18	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	0:3
21.12.17	Deportivo Alavés - Málaga	1:0
11.03.17	Málaga - Deportivo Alavés	1:2
16.10.16	Deportivo Alavés - Málaga	1:1

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