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Málaga - Villarreal

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Match Info

  • LaLiga - Round 6
  • Date: 17 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished
  • Location: Estadio La Rosaleda (Málaga) 🌤️ ...
  • Referee: Ortiz M. (Esp)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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    Málaga Villarreal
    Málaga Villarreal
    1 X 2
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    Bovada 3.50 3.70 2.12
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 3.54 ↑
    (3.36)    		 3.64 ↓
    (3.82)    		 2.06 ↑
    (2.03)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

    • The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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    Current Win Probability

    Málaga
    27.1%    		Draw
    26.4%    		Villarreal
    46.6%

    Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
    28.3% 24.9% 46.8%

    Our Initial ML Estimation
    27.9% 24.5% 47.5%


    Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
  • Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)
  • Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

    • Who will win by Users?

    1
    X
    2
    13.5% 24.3% 62.2%

    Málaga - Villarreal Predictions

  • Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). Villarreal will win (votes: 23 - 65.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 20%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 50% – 81.4%.
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
    • AH +0.5 - Málaga (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.25 - Villarreal (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Málaga (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Villarreal (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
  • Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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    Lineups

    Starting Lineups
      1. SpainHerrero A. (C)
      3. SpainPuga C.
    15. SpainRecio A.
      4. SpainGalilea E.
    12. SpainSalinas J.
    23. SpainMerino I.
    19. SpainCruz J.
    10. SpainLarrubia D.
      8. SpainDotor C.
    18. SpainMartinez P.
      9. SpainChupe
    		25. HungaryGulacsi P. (G)
      3. USAFreeman A.
      6. SpainNavarro P.
    12. PortugalVeiga R.
    23. SpainCardona S.
    11. MoroccoAkhomach I.
    24. CanadaSaliba N.
    14. SpainComesana S. (C)
    17. CanadaBuchanan T.
    10. SpainMoleiro A.
    22. SpainPerez A.
    Substitutes
    25. SpainBerrocal J.
      6. SpainEnriquez R.
    32. SpainFernandez J.
    17. SpainJauregi E.
    13. SpainLopez C. (G)
    22. SpainLorenzo D.
    11. SpainMunoz J.
    21. SpainNino A.
      5. SpainPastor A.
    31. SpainRafita
    14. SpainRodriguez R.
    		  2. CapeCosta L.
      5. SenegalDiatta A.
    13. SpainGomez R. (G)
    18. SenegalGueye P.
      1. BrazilLuiz Junior (G)
    16. SpainMacia C.
      9. GeorgiaMikautadze G.
      7. SpainMoreno G.
    15. UruguayMourino S.
    21. CanadaOluwaseyi T.
    19. IvoryPepe N.
    20. SpainRomero C.
    Coaches
         SpainFunes J.
    		     SpainPerez I.

    Key Events of the Match

    • 1st Half (1 - 2)
    • 12', 1 - 0, Dotor C. ⚽, Cruz J. (A),
    • 34', Salinas J. 🟨,
    • 37', Comesana S. ↓, Gueye P. ↑,
    • 40', 1 - 1, Moleiro A. ⚽, Akhomach I. (A),
    • 42', Akhomach I. 🟨,
    • 45+2', 1 - 2, Gueye P. ⚽, Perez A. (A),
    • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
    • 46', Cruz J. ↓, Lorenzo D. ↑,
    • 46', Salinas J. ↓, Rafita ↑,
    • 61', Merino I. ↓, Munoz J. ↑,
    • 61', Dotor C. ↓, Nino A. ↑,
    • 63', Akhomach I. ↓, Romero C. ↑,
    • 63', Perez A. ↓, Mikautadze G. ↑,
    • 68', Larrubia D. 🟨,
    • 70', Galilea E. 🟨,
    • 75', Puga C. ↓, Enriquez R. ↑,
    • 79', Enriquez R. 🟨,
    • 80', Moleiro A. ↓, Mourino S. ↑,
    • 80', Saliba N. ↓, Macia C. ↑,
    • 85', Herrero A. 🟨,
    • 86', 1 - 3, Gueye P. (Penalty Awarded),

    Preview

  • This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).
  • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 2.
  • Málaga is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
  • Villarreal has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
  • Villarreal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
  • Villarreal could have a small edge in this match.
  • There will not play in Málaga: Cajuste J. (Injury) Diarra M. (Calf Injury) Lobete J. (Knee Injury) Murillo D. (Injury) Ochoa A. (Knee Injury)
  • There will not play in Villarreal: Foyth J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)
  • There are questionable in Málaga: Calero F. (Ribs Injury)
  • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Málaga won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 9:13. (average 0.8:1.1).
  • Including home matches between the teams, Málaga won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 0.8:0.7).

    • Standings

    PlWDLDiffPts
    10Villarreal1033415:14112
    20Malaga100557:19-125

    Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now
    Villarreal: 0.41% Malaga: 0.09%
    Last Results with these Odds

    Villarreal - the odds 2.03 are the expected chance of winning is 46.83%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

    Form
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Málaga CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    13.09.26 Celta de Vigo - Málaga 1:1 ✺
    06.09.26 Málaga - Levante 0:0 ✺
    30.08.26 Real Madrid - Málaga 4:0 ✺
    24.08.26 Málaga - Deportivo A Coruña 1:1 ✺
    19.08.26 Atlético Madrid - Málaga 2:0 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1
    TTLTL
    - Villarreal CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    14.09.26 Villarreal - Betis 1:2 ✺
    UEFA Champions League
    08.09.26 Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal 3:2 ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    05.09.26 Villarreal - Deportivo A Coruña 2:3 ✺
    28.08.26 Deportivo Alavés - Villarreal 1:0 ✺
    23.08.26 Atlético Madrid - Villarreal 2:2 ✺
    Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4
    LLLLT
    Latest Head to Head
    Spanish LaLiga
    01.04.18 Málaga - Villarreal 1:0
    05.11.17 Villarreal - Málaga 2:0
    Club Friendly
    11.08.17 Málaga - Villarreal 1:0
    Spanish LaLiga
    12.02.17 Villarreal - Málaga 1:1
    10.09.16 Málaga - Villarreal 0:2
    13.02.16 Villarreal - Málaga 1:0
    23.09.15 Málaga - Villarreal 0:1
    Upcoming Matches
    ✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;
    - Málaga CF
    Spanish LaLiga
    31.10.26 Betis - Málaga ✺
    - Villarreal CF
    UEFA Champions League
    03.11.26 Villarreal - Paris Saint-Germain ✺
    Spanish LaLiga
    30.10.26 Villarreal - Espanyol ✺

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