Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 33

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano (Moron)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports


	Deportivo Morón		Mitre

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.25	6	Watch
	1.68	3.1	5.5
	1.73	3.3	6.19
	1.67	3.21	6.26	Watch
	1.76	3.04	5.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.92)	3.18 ↑ (2.93)	5.87 ↑ (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Morón
54.9%

Draw
29.2%

Mitre
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

31.6%

20.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

31.3%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Morón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Morón's performance.

Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Morón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mitre than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Deportivo Morón - Mitre Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Deportivo Morón (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Morón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salva J. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 11. Contreras E. 2. Cortave M. 9. Costantino I. 5. Ferreira P. 8. Franco E. 10. Gonzalez Y. 3. Lazza E. 7. Sanguinetti F. 6. Vazquez F.	1. Ledesma J. (G) 5. Alessandroni J. 4. Diaz C. 7. Gonzalez R. 11. Machado M. 9. Martinez E. 6. Melillan F. 8. Montenegro M. 2. Moscarelli O. 10. Rosales S. 3. Sanchez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', Cabrera J. M. 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Contreras E. ⚽,
36', Sanguinetti F. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, Gonzalez Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gallardo D. ↓, Kabalin M. ↑,
46', Lujan S. ↓, Machado M. ↑,
58', Kabalin M. 🟨,
60', Contreras E. ↓, Bittolo M. ↑,
65', Franco E. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
65', Sanguinetti F. ↓, Kubiszyn S. ↑,
66', Martinez E. ↓, Romero N. ↑,
75', Gonzalez R. ↓, Rios L. ↑,
75', Rosales S. ↓, Ramirez A. ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Costantino I. (Pen),
79', Costantino I. ↓, Fergonzi R. ↑,
79', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Olivares J. ↑,
86', Rios L. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90', Cabrera J. M. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Deportivo Morón is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Morón won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.09.25	Colón - Deportivo Morón	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Deportivo Morón - Temperley	0:1 ✺
05.09.25	Defensores Unidos - Deportivo Morón	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Deportivo Morón - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	Deportivo Morón - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLWTW
- CA Mitre
Argentinian Primera Nacional
21.09.25	Mitre - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:0 ✺
14.09.25	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Mitre	1:0 ✺
07.09.25	Mitre - Defensores de Belgrano	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Chacarita Juniors - Mitre	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Mitre - San Telmo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.05.25	Mitre - Deportivo Morón	0:0
22.09.24	Deportivo Morón - Mitre	1:2
04.05.24	Mitre - Deportivo Morón	0:0
18.09.22	Deportivo Morón - Mitre	1:0
13.10.19	Mitre - Deportivo Morón	1:1
10.12.18	Mitre - Deportivo Morón	1:0
10.03.18	Deportivo Morón - Mitre	1:1

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