Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 24

Date: 26 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano (Moron)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Deportivo Morón		Chacarita Juniors

	1	X	2
	2	2.88	4.5	Watch
	1.93	2.85	4.4
	1.98	2.82	4.35	Watch
	2.06	2.83	4.66
	1.90	2.87	5.25	Watch
	1.91	2.88	4.6
	1.99	2.8	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.24)	2.85 ↓ (2.98)	4.61 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Morón
47.2%

Draw
32.6%

Chacarita Juniors
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

30.9%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

29.7%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Morón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Morón's performance.

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chacarita Juniors might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chacarita Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Morón - Chacarita Juniors Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Salva J. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 2. Lorenzon F. 6. Lazza E. 3. Vaquero I. M. 8. Franco E. 5. Kubiszyn S. 10. Gonzalez Y. 11. Bittolo M. 7. Beron J. 9. Costantino I.	1. Avellaneda N. (G) 4. Gonzalez J. 2. Rebola A. 6. Migliore T. 3. Quiroga A. 8. Ortiz T. 5. Bravo F. 7. Melendez M. 10. Figueroa V. 9. Apa S. 11. Jaime M.
Substitutes
18. Baez F. 15. Contreras E. 13. Cortave M. 20. Fergonzi R. 12. Finochietto L. (G) 16. Gonzalez G. 19. Olivares J. 17. Sanguinetti F. 14. Vazquez F.	13. Andueza F. 17. Barrios M. 16. Blanco R. 15. Chaves N. 18. Chocobar V. 19. Ciccolini L. 14. Errecalde G. 20. Rivero H. 12. Strumia J. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, Jaime M. ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, Gonzalez J. ⚽,
25', Salva J. 🟨,
34', Kubiszyn S. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gonzalez J. ↓, Errecalde G. ↑,
48', Jaime M. 🟨,
51', Beron J. 🟨,
55', Beron J. ↓, Olivares J. ↑,
55', Franco E. ↓, Gonzalez G. ↑,
57', Migliore T. 🟨,
60', 🟨,
73', Apa S. 🟨,
73', Migliore T. ↓, Andueza F. ↑,
73', Melendez M. ↓, Ciccolini L. ↑,
77', Vaquero I. M. ↓, Sanguinetti F. ↑,
83', Jaime M. ↓, Chocobar V. ↑,
85', Apa S. ↓, Rivero H. ↑,
86', Gonzalez Y. 🟨,
87', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Fergonzi R. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Deportivo Morón is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chacarita's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Deportivo Morón will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Morón won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Morón won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.07.25	San Telmo - Deportivo Morón	1:2 ✺
12.07.25	Deportivo Morón - Agropecuario Argentino	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	Gimnasia Jujuy - Deportivo Morón	0:0 ✺
22.06.25	Central Norte - Deportivo Morón	0:0 ✺
14.06.25	Deportivo Morón - Almirante Brown	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WTTTW
- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.07.25	Chacarita Juniors - Talleres de Remedios de Escalada	2:1 ✺
13.07.25	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Chacarita Juniors	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	Chacarita Juniors - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
28.06.25	Chacarita Juniors - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
22.06.25	San Telmo - Chacarita Juniors	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
23.03.25	Chacarita Juniors - Deportivo Morón	1:1
13.03.22	Deportivo Morón - Chacarita Juniors	0:1
02.02.19	Deportivo Morón - Chacarita Juniors	0:0

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