Match Info

PERU: Liga 2 - Round 13

Date: 23 June 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Iván Elías Moreno (Lima)


	Deportivo Municipal		Comerciantes Belén

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.93	3.1	3.6
	1.9	3.25	3.75
	1.88	3.13	3.93
	1.88	3.13	3.93
	1.83	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.36	3.87
	1.93	3.1	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.4)	3.2 ↑ (3.04)	3.8 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Municipal
47.9%

Draw
28.3%

Comerciantes Belén
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29.7%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

31.9%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Municipal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Municipal's performance.

Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Comerciantes Belén might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Municipal than the current prediction. (-7.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Municipal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Comerciantes Belén could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Deportivo Municipal - Comerciantes Belén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nicosia F. (G) 35. Ayaucan S. 9. Calero A. 5. Cavagna F. 20. Cespedes J. (C) 17. Di Leo T. 8. Inga J. 32. Pumpido F. 26. Reyes D. 7. Villagra C. 14. Yanez A.	25. Gentilio N. (G) 22. Catashunga J. 28. Chipao R. (C) 24. Flores L. 23. Lemos M. 10. Lugo K. 5. Pinedo D. 7. Sanchez D. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 17. Vela P. 9. Zambrano J.
Substitutes
11. Galvez S. 6. Jimenez A. 33. Lopez D. (G) 10. Lopez D. 16. Lucero G. 15. Ortiz J. 24. Raffo R. 21. Romero J.	6. Davila I. 13. Gadea J. 27. Lopez J. 8. Quiroz A. 1. Ramirez B. (G) 19. Reategui P. 4. Saffadi D. 15. Santillan I. 14. Vasquez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 🟨,
20', Calero A. 🟨,
28', Valdeblanquez J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 0, Pumpido F. ⚽,
45', Reyes D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 🟨,
58', Reyes D. ↓, Romero J. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Zambrano J. ⚽,
69', Zambrano J. ↓, Saffadi D. ↑,
69', Vela P. ↓, Santillan I. ↑,
70', Calero A. ↓, Galvez S. ↑,
70', Villagra C. ↓, Rey I. ↑,
70', Pumpido F. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
74', Lemos M. ↓, Quiroz A. ↑,
79', Inga J. ↓, Ortiz J. ↑,
81', Yanez A. 🟨,
86', Lugo K. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
90+3', Cavagna F. 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Municipal
Peruvian Liga 2
16.06.24	Deportivo Coopsol - Deportivo Municipal	1:1 ✺
10.06.24	Deportivo Municipal - Moquegua	0:0 ✺
06.06.24	Cantolao - Deportivo Municipal	0:2 ✺
31.05.24	Ayacucho - Deportivo Municipal	3:0 ✺
26.05.24	Deportivo Municipal - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTWLW
- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
12.06.24	Comerciantes Belén - Deportivo Coopsol	2:2 ✺
06.06.24	Moquegua - Comerciantes Belén	1:2 ✺
01.06.24	Cantolao - Comerciantes Belén	1:2 ✺
25.05.24	Comerciantes Belén - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
20.05.24	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 TWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
28.04.24	Comerciantes Belén - Deportivo Municipal	1:1

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