Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas (Pereira)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Deportivo Pereira		Rionegro Águilas

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.1	2.25	Watch
	3.25	3.15	2.22
	3.37	3.24	2.31
	3.77	3.27	2.03	Watch
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.3	3.1	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (2.74)	3.14 ↑ (2.79)	2.21 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pereira
27.8%

Draw
29.8%

Rionegro Águilas
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

33.4%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

33.2%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Pereira's form might have worsened.

Rionegro Águilas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rionegro Águilas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pereira than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Pereira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rionegro Águilas than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rionegro Águilas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Pereira will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Rionegro Águilas will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rionegro Águilas: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Rionegro Águilas (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Rionegro Águilas (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Rionegro Águilas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mosquera J. (G) 29. Renteria R. 16. Moreno Gomez E. A. 6. Ortiz D. 25. Delgado F. 5. Bermudez Correa J. A. 7. Plata A. 19. Aguirre M. 10. Acosta S. 88. Quinones Y. 18. Perez M. (C)	1. Arboleda I. (G) 26. Lozano D. 5. Hernandez D. 30. Lara Vasquez N. 32. Mena J. 29. Lopes H. 24. Avalo Trejos J. E. 19. Lozano F. (C) 25. Roa J. 15. Suarez Chalare F. A. 9. Rivaldo J.
Substitutes
12. Betancourth J. (G) 31. Calderon A. 11. Largacha J. 20. Monroy J. 13. Montoya J. 37. Moreno L. 8. Mosquera F. 3. Rengifo N. 2. Urrea S.	11. Canozales C. 99. Obregon J. 16. Pineda J. 8. Ricaurte A. 12. Salazar A. (G) 10. Uruena B. 3. Varela J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Arboleda I. ↓, Salazar A. ↑,
26', Plata A. ↓, Largacha J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Moreno Gomez E. A. 🟨,
53', 0 - 1, Rivaldo J. ⚽, Avalo Trejos J. E. (A),
57', Lozano F. 🟨,
62', Acosta S. ↓, Montoya J. ↑,
75', Suarez Chalare F. A. ↓, Canozales C. ↑,
75', Rivaldo J. ↓, Obregon J. ↑,
77', Moreno Gomez E. A. ↓, Monroy J. ↑,
77', Perez M. ↓, Calderon A. ↑,
77', Quinones Y. ↓, Mosquera F. ↑,
86', Largacha J. 🟨,
86', 🟨,
88', Lozano F. ↓, Pineda J. ↑,
88', Avalo Trejos J. E. ↓, Uruena B. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 19 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 1.

Recent form of Pereira has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Rionegro Águilas has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Rionegro Águilas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Pereira has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Pereira won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Pereira won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.3:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Aguilas	12	3	6	3	16:17	-1	15
19	Pereira	12	1	6	5	7:17	-10	9

Last Results with these Odds

Rionegro Águilas - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 32.48%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pereira
Colombian Primera A
10.03.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Pereira	3:0 ✺
26.02.26	Millonarios - Deportivo Pereira	5:1 ✺
20.02.26	Deportivo Pereira - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Independiente Medellín - Deportivo Pereira	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Jaguares de Córdoba - Deportivo Pereira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLTTL
- Rionegro Águilas
Colombian Primera A
07.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
01.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Inter Bogotá	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
11.02.26	Millonarios - Rionegro Águilas	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Rionegro Águilas - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
24.10.25	Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas	1:5
04.05.25	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pereira	3:3
27.09.24	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pereira	1:1
17.03.24	Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas	2:1
11.10.23	Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas	0:0
12.03.23	Rionegro Águilas - Deportivo Pereira	2:1
19.09.22	Deportivo Pereira - Rionegro Águilas	2:2

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