Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday


	Derio		Zamudio

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	3.9
	1.78	3.38	4.4
	2.26	2.59	3.94	Watch
	1.8	3.1	4.2
	1.82	3.43	4.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.8)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	4.16 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derio
48.6%

Draw
29.2%

Zamudio
22.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

27.8%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53%

26.8%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Zamudio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derio than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zamudio than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Derio - Zamudio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Guipu ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
75', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+1', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+10', 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 14).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Derio may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Derio is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Derio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
01.03.26	Santurtzi - Derio	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Pasaia - Derio	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Derio - Lagun Onak	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Deusto - Derio	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Derio - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TWLWL
- Zamudio SD
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
01.03.26	Zamudio - Touring KE	2:3 ✺
22.02.26	Alavés C - Zamudio	5:0 ✺
15.02.26	Zamudio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
07.02.26	Leioa - Zamudio	2:1 ✺
01.02.26	Zamudio - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
25.10.25	Zamudio - Derio	2:3

Derio - Zamudio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide