Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday


	Derio		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.1	1.98
	3.42	3.14	2.11
	21.45	5.96	1.15	Watch
	3.64	3.08	1.99
	3.33	3.1	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.07 ↑ (4.49)	3.68 ↑ (3.35)	1.87 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derio
14.9%

Draw
28.7%

Portugalete
56.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.2%

27.1%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20%

26.8%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derio's form might have worsened.

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derio than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Derio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Derio - Portugalete Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Derio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Portugalete is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Portugalete is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derio won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Derio won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Derio	5	3	2	0	7:2	5	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.01.26	San Ignacio - Derio	1:2 ✺
10.01.26	Derio - Zarautz KE	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Touring KE - Derio	5:2 ✺
20.12.25	Derio - Alavés C	2:3 ✺
13.12.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLT
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
18.01.26	Portugalete - Touring KE	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Portugalete - Alavés C	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Portugalete - Leioa	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Eibar C - Portugalete	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
14.09.25	Portugalete - Derio	3:2
01.03.25	Derio - Portugalete	1:1
20.10.24	Portugalete - Derio	1:0
25.02.24	Portugalete - Derio	0:0
07.10.23	Derio - Portugalete	1:2

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