Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 22Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday
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Pasaia |
|
Derio |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.82 |
2.82 |
2.52 |
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 |
3.16 |
2.94 |
2.34 |
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2.8 |
3.01 |
2.51 |
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3.13 |
2.88 |
2.3 |
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3 |
3 |
2.3 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.98 ↑
(2.85) |
2.93 ↑
(2.8) |
2.39 ↓
(2.55) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Pasaia
30.6% | Draw
31.2% | Derio
38.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pasaia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-3.3%)Pasaia - Derio Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 5', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 81', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 90+5', 0 - 3, ⚽,
Preview
An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 9).Recent form of Pasaia has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).Derio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2). In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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