Match Info

Stars League - Round 10

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Iraq	20:30	Almanasa


	Diyala		Naft Maysan

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.00	2.00
	3.5	3.05	1.95
	3.5	3.16	1.96
	3.66	3.25	1.95	Watch
	3.45	3.1	1.94
	3.92	3.2	1.97
	3.55	3.15	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.57 ↑ (3.33)	3.13 ↑ (3.03)	1.96 ↓ (2.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diyala
25.3%

Draw
28.8%

Naft Maysan
45.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.5%

30.2%

42.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.6%

29%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diyala has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Naft Maysan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diyala than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naft Maysan than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naft Maysan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Diyala - Naft Maysan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Sioud N. ⚽, Abdulsada M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+7', Ahmed M. 🟥,
90+11', 2 - 0, Jabbar Z. ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 11th and 16th).

Diyala is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Naft Maysan have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Diyala may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Naft Maysan is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Diyala has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:2 (averaging 1.5:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Diyala against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Diyala	11	3	4	4	15:16	-1	13
19	Naft Missan	11	1	5	5	7:15	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Diyala - the odds 3.33 are the expected chance of winning is 27.47%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Diyala SC
Iraqi Premier League
09.10.26	Al-Naft - Diyala	2:0 ✺
19.09.26	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Diyala	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Diyala - Al-Gharraf	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	Arbil - Diyala	2:0 ✺
03.09.26	Diyala - Al-Karma	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTWLL
- Naft Maysan
Iraqi Premier League
08.10.26	Naft Maysan - Arbil	1:1 ✺
17.09.26	Al-Karkh - Naft Maysan	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Naft Maysan - Al-Talaba	2:0 ✺
09.09.26	Al-Minaa - Naft Maysan	1:1 ✺
04.09.26	Naft Maysan - Newroz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
09.04.26	Diyala - Naft Maysan	1:0
05.01.26	Naft Maysan - Diyala	1:1
21.04.25	Naft Maysan - Diyala	0:1
03.02.25	Diyala - Naft Maysan	3:1

Diyala - Naft Maysan