Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 8

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday


	Dorchester Town		Yate Town

	1	X	2
	1.72	3.8	3.65
	1.74	3.88	3.73
	1.77	3.74	3.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.02)	3.81 ↑ (3.49)	3.71 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dorchester Town
51.9%

Draw
23.8%

Yate Town
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

25.9%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

25.9%

29.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dorchester Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Dorchester Town's performance.

Yate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorchester Town than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Dorchester Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yate Town than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Dorchester Town - Yate Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+3', 1 - 0, Parker J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', 2 - 0, Parker J. ⚽,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dorchester won 1.

Recent form of Dorchester has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Yate has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Yate may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dorchester has had a series of away games.

Dorchester will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Dorchester won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dorchester won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Dorchester Town - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.87%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dorchester Town
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Brixham - Dorchester Town	1:3 ✺
English Southern League South Division
09.09.25	Plymouth Parkway - Dorchester Town	3:3 ✺
06.09.25	Gloucester City - Dorchester Town	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Dorchester Town - Farnham Town	1:3 ✺
23.08.25	Berkhamsted - Dorchester Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLLL
- Yate Town
English Southern League South Division
09.09.25	Yate Town - Tiverton Town	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Yate Town - Gosport Borough	1:1 ✺
25.08.25	Hungerford Town - Yate Town	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Yate Town - Chertsey Town	0:0 ✺
16.08.25	Hanwell Town - Yate Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
02.01.23	Dorchester Town - Yate Town	2:0
29.08.22	Yate Town - Dorchester Town	0:0
18.04.22	Dorchester Town - Yate Town	0:1
01.01.22	Yate Town - Dorchester Town	2:1
26.09.20	Yate Town - Dorchester Town	4:1
19.10.19	Dorchester Town - Yate Town	2:0
English FA Trophy
27.10.18	Yate Town - Dorchester Town	1:1

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