Match Info

Premier Division - Round 22

Date: 26 June 2026, Friday

Location: Oriel Park (Dundalk)

Referee: Lynch M. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
World	LOI TV


	Dundalk		Waterford

	1	X	2
	1.50	4.10	5.25	Watch
	1.50	4.33	5.00
	1.50	4.25	5.60
	1.55	4.55	5.71
	1.56	4.47	5.31	Watch
	1.52	4.45	5.60
	1.54	4.22	5.40	Watch
	1.49	4.30	5.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.49)	4.33 ↓ (4.88)	5.36 ↓ (5.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundalk
61.2%

Draw
21.5%

Waterford
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

19.3%

17.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.1%

18.2%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundalk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

The chances for Waterford have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dundalk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Waterford than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Dundalk - Waterford Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Dundalk (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Dundalk will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Minogue E. (G) 18. Buckley K. 24. Cornwall R. 3. Burns B. 22. Wilson T. 6. Dervin A. 8. Groome H. 16. Kenny E. 11. Teahan R. 7. Horgan D. (C) 9. Arubi G.	1. McMullan S. (G) 2. Houston J. 16. Cann H. 5. Mahon J. 13. Long K. 3. Couto B. 15. Heeney L. 4. Johnson W. 27. McMenamy D. 18. Lonergan T. 9. Amond P. (C)
Substitutes
4. Animasahun M. 13. Cherrie P. (G) 10. Gaxha L. 23. Keogh A. M. 29. Molloy T. 12. Mulligan L. 19. Spaight S. 17. Tracey S.	32. Amedu G. 6. Barrett C. 11. Coyle T. 21. Doherty A. (G) 17. Faria J. 19. Glenfield S. 22. Mansfield R. 10. Noonan C. 20. Voilas J.
Coaches
Kilduff C.	Coughlan G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Kenny E. ⚽, Horgan D. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Groome H. ⚽, Horgan D. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, Lonergan T. ⚽, Couto B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
49', Heeney L. 🟨,
56', McMenamy D. ↓, Voilas J. ↑,
56', Heeney L. ↓, Glenfield S. ↑,
62', Burns B. 🟨,
63', 2 - 2, Lonergan T. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Groome H. ↓, Tracey S. ↑,
74', Dervin A. ↓, Animasahun M. ↑,
80', Houston J. ↓, Coyle T. ↑,
81', Johnson W. 🟨,
85', 2 - 3, Mahon J. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dundalk won 1.

Dundalk has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Waterford has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Dundalk is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Dundalk: Garbett N. (Hamstring Injury) McDaid D. (Red Card) O'Keeffe C. (Injury) Warren H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Waterford: Armstrong F. (Muscle Injury) McLaughlin E. (Foot Injury)

We predict that Dundalk will win today's game, with odds of 1.49.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dundalk won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 36:24. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dundalk won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.9:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Dundalk	33	10	11	12	50:55	-5	41
8	Waterford	32	7	13	12	44:54	-10	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundalk FC
Irish Premier Division
19.06.26	Bohemians Dublin - Dundalk	1:2 ✺
12.06.26	Galway United - Dundalk	0:1 ✺
29.05.26	Dundalk - Derry City	2:1 ✺
22.05.26	Drogheda United - Dundalk	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	Dundalk - Shamrock Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWWTW
- Waterford FC
Irish Premier Division
19.06.26	Waterford - Shamrock Rovers	0:2 ✺
12.06.26	Waterford - Sligo Rovers	4:0 ✺
29.05.26	Drogheda United - Waterford	3:3 ✺
22.05.26	Shelbourne - Waterford	2:1 ✺
18.05.26	Waterford - Drogheda United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
04.05.26	Waterford - Dundalk	3:3
13.03.26	Dundalk - Waterford	5:0
13.09.24	Waterford - Dundalk	2:1
28.06.24	Dundalk - Waterford	0:2
10.05.24	Waterford - Dundalk	4:1
15.03.24	Dundalk - Waterford	0:0
Irish FAI Cup
16.09.22	Waterford - Dundalk	3:2

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