Match Info

Premiership - Round 23

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Tannadice Park (Dundee)

Referee: Robertson D. (Sco)


	Dundee United		St. Mirren

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	3	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.8
	2.42	3.05	2.98	Watch
	2.48	3.2	3.17
	2.43	3.18	3.06	Watch
	2.38	3	3
	2.4	3.13	3.03	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↓ (2.53)	3.16 ↑ (3.12)	2.98 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee United
38.8%

Draw
29.7%

St. Mirren
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

30.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

30.3%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

St. Mirren has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundee United than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	38.5%	30.8%

Dundee United - St. Mirren Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Dundee Utd will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). St. Mirren will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 12% – 65%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Dundee Utd (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Dundee Utd (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maynard-Brewer A. (G) 4. Iovu I. 6. Graham R. (C) 23. Keresztes K. 21. Stephenson L. 5. Sevelj V. 12. Agyei E. 20. Farrugia N. 8. Camara P. 36. Watters M. 17. Fatah A.	1. George S. (G) 22. Fraser M. 13. Gogic A. 21. Freckleton M. 2. Richardson J. 6. O'Hara M. (C) 88. Phillips K. 25. Baccus K. 3. Tanser S. 7. Idowu R. 14. N'Lundulu D.
Substitutes
37. Cleall-Harding S. 19. Dolcek I. 10. Eskesen J. 11. Ferry W. 22. Naamo D. 25. Richards D. (G) 77. Russell J. 9. Sapsford Z. 7. Trapanovski K.	17. Calvin J. 16. Campbell A. 8. Devaney J. 4. Donnelly L. 29. Etete K. 24. John D. 5. King R. 31. Mullen R. (G) 20. Young J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Fraser M. (Own goal),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Idowu R. ↓, Young J. ↑,
46', Agyei E. 🟨,
47', 1 - 1, Young J. ⚽, Tanser S. (A),
65', Tanser S. ↓, John D. ↑,
66', Fatah A. 🟨,
69', Watters M. ↓, Sapsford Z. ↑,
75', Farrugia N. ↓, Ferry W. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Fatah A. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Fatah A. ↓, Russell J. ↑,
84', Camara P. ↓, Trapanovski K. ↑,
84', Richardson J. ↓, King R. ↑,
84', O'Hara M. ↓, Calvin J. ↑,
90+1', Freckleton M. 🟨,
90+1', N'Lundulu D. ↓, Etete K. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 10 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dundee Utd won 3.

Dundee Utd has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

St. Mirren is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

St. Mirren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, St. Mirren has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Dundee Utd: Pappoe I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J. (Tendon Injury) Baccus K. (Hamstring Injury) O'Hara M. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dundee Utd won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Dundee Utd won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.1:1.5).

Outrights of Scottish Premier League for now

Dundee Utd: 0.6% St. Mirren: 0.38%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Dundee Utd	8	3	2	3	10:11	-1	11
6	St. Mirren	8	3	1	4	8:14	-6	10

Last Results with these Odds

St. Mirren - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32.36%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee United
Scottish Premier League
28.02.26	Motherwell - Dundee United	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Dundee United - Aberdeen	0:0 ✺
21.02.26	Dundee United - Kilmarnock	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.02.26	Dundee United - Spartans	2:1 ✺
Scottish Premier League
14.02.26	Falkirk - Dundee United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LTTWW
- St. Mirren
Scottish Premier League
28.02.26	Livingston - St. Mirren	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	St. Mirren - Motherwell	0:5 ✺
14.02.26	Hibernian - St. Mirren	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	4:3 ✺
Scottish Cup
06.02.26	Airdrieonians - St. Mirren	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
06.12.25	St. Mirren - Dundee United	2:0
25.10.25	Dundee United - St. Mirren	3:1
10.05.25	Dundee United - St. Mirren	0:2
11.01.25	St. Mirren - Dundee United	0:1
30.11.24	Dundee United - St. Mirren	2:0
05.10.24	St. Mirren - Dundee United	0:1
Scottish League Cup
18.08.24	Dundee United - St. Mirren	1:0

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