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Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, February 11, 2026)

Match Info

Premiership - Round 26

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Referee: Irvine G. (Sco)


	Kilmarnock		St. Mirren

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.88	3.2	2.42	Watch
	3.03	3.28	2.5
	2.93	3.3	2.44	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.45
	2.9	3.2	2.44	Watch
	2.9	3.2	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.89)	3.24 ↑ (3.08)	2.44 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kilmarnock
32.4%

Draw
29%

St. Mirren
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

28.6%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kilmarnock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

St. Mirren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kilmarnock than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Mirren than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Kilmarnock will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). St. Mirren will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Kilmarnock (2.00) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kilmarnock (votes: 1 - 50%). St. Mirren (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Roos K. (G) 8. Lyons B. (C) 25. Schilte-Brown E. 6. Deas R. 21. Schjonning-Larsen M. 52. Curtis F. 12. Watson D. 31. Polworth L. 11. Kiltie G. 24. John-Jules T. 19. Anderson B.	1. George S. (G) 22. Fraser M. (C) 5. King R. 21. Freckleton M. 2. Richardson J. 88. Phillips K. 8. Devaney J. 13. Gogic A. 24. John D. 9. Mandron M. 7. Idowu R.
Substitutes
2. Brandon J. 9. Dackers M. 44. Hugill J. 7. McKenzie R. 14. Stanger G. 1. Stryjek M. (G) 22. Thompson J. 36. Tshibola A. 4. Williams Z.	17. Calvin J. 16. Campbell A. 4. Donnelly L. 29. Etete K. 10. McMenamin C. 31. Mullen R. (G) 14. N'Lundulu D. 19. Sobowale T. 3. Tanser S.
Coaches
McCann N.	Robinson S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Phillips K. ⚽, Mandron M. (A),
11', Watson D. 🟨,
40', King R. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Kiltie G. ⚽, Curtis F. (A),
45+1', 2 - 1, John-Jules T. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Richardson J. ↓, N'Lundulu D. ↑,
47', 2 - 2, Phillips K. ⚽,
65', Anderson B. ↓, Hugill J. ↑,
65', Lyons B. ↓, Tshibola A. ↑,
74', Gogic A. 🟨,
76', 3 - 2, John-Jules T. ⚽,
79', Curtis F. ↓, Brandon J. ↑,
80', Watson D. ↓, Thompson J. ↑,
82', 4 - 2, John-Jules T. ⚽, Deas R. (A),
84', Idowu R. ↓, McMenamin C. ↑,
84', Phillips K. ↓, Calvin J. ↑,
84', John D. ↓, Tanser S. ↑,
84', Polworth L. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
86', Freckleton M. 🟨,
90+3', 4 - 3, Tanser S. ⚽, Gogic A. (A),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 11 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ) and 9 in the zone Premiership (Relegation Group: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 2.

Kilmarnock is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

St. Mirren is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

St. Mirren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Kilmarnock: Daniels D. (Knee Injury) Kennedy M. (Hip Injury) Magennis K. (Knee Injury) Thompson D. (Red Card)

There will not play in St. Mirren: Ayunga J. (Tendon Injury) Baccus K. (Hamstring Injury) O'Hara M. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Kilmarnock: Brandon J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in St. Mirren: Young J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kilmarnock won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 1.4:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kilmarnock won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.9:1.4).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kilmarnock FC
Scottish Premier League
04.02.26	Glasgow Rangers - Kilmarnock	5:1 ✺
31.01.26	Kilmarnock - Aberdeen	3:0 ✺
24.01.26	Motherwell - Kilmarnock	4:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Kilmarnock - Dundee	1:2 ✺
Scottish Premier League
10.01.26	Livingston - Kilmarnock	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LWLLT
- St. Mirren
Scottish Cup
06.02.26	Airdrieonians - St. Mirren	1:2 ET ✺
Scottish Premier League
03.02.26	St. Mirren - Hearts	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	St. Mirren - Dundee	0:0 ✺
20.01.26	Livingston - St. Mirren	1:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
17.01.26	Livingston - St. Mirren	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Premier League
27.12.25	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:0
04.10.25	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	2:0
Scottish League Cup
19.09.25	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	2:3 penalties
Scottish Premier League
29.03.25	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	5:1
02.01.25	Kilmarnock - St. Mirren	2:0
14.09.24	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	2:2
11.05.24	St. Mirren - Kilmarnock	0:1

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